If prediction markets are any indication, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro might not be the only big international move President Donald Trump makes.
Traders at prediction markets such as Kalshi have seen a boost in trading that suggests the White House might not be finished in its bid to police the Western Hemisphere.
"The big takeaway for investors is Trump is growing much more comfortable with, and confident in, the use of military force," Piper Sandler analyst Andy Laperriere wrote to clients on Monday.
"His first year in his second term was characterized by boundless energy and risk-taking, and that has been extended to the use of the military," Laperriere added.
Odds that the president will "take back the Panama Canal" before he leaves office have jumped above 35% at Kalshi.
Before the Venezuela raid, the odds were less than 30%.
Before taking office, Trump declined to rule out using military force to retake the canal, which has been under Panamanian control since 1999.
The possibility that the U.S. will "take control of any part of Greenland" rose to 38% midday Tuesday, an increase of roughly 8 percentage points since last week.
In the immediate aftermath of the capture of Maduro, the odds were 46%.
The odds Trump will "buy at least part" of Greenland were at 25%, up from 20% before the capture of Maduro.
Bettors also wagered $2.5 million on both Greenland questions at Kalshi, CNBC reported.
Bettors have also bet more than $1 million on whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, will leave office before next year.
The odds are trading at 54%.
On Polymarket, new markets worth tens of thousands of dollars each have sprouted in recent days around a potential strike on Colombia and an invasion of Cuba, according to CNBC.
Sam Barron ✉
Sam Barron has almost two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime and business.
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