Donald Trump's resounding victory in the Iowa caucuses last week has carried over to independents according to a new poll from The Economist/YouGov. The survey results appear to reflect the country at large with the two likely candidates running within the typical margin of error showing 44% for Biden and 43% for Trump. Yet, among independents, Trump leads by 3 points, 40% to 37%.
Independents have proven to be the most coveted voting bloc in recent elections as their participation, or lack thereof, can be the difference maker. Although Trump did show gains among independents, almost a full quarter, or 22%, were ambivalent about both candidates. When asked which candidate they preferred, nine percent said "other," five percent chose "not sure," and eight percent said, "I would not vote."
When it came to job performance numbers, Biden didn't fare much better with 54% disapproving and 40% approving. The president fared even worse when it was broken out among independents with 61% disapproving and only 28% approving.
Perhaps the largest hit for Biden came in the overall mood of the election. When asked whom respondents "believed would win" in a rematch of Trump and Biden, 45% went with Trump over 32% believing Biden would be reelected. Yet, when separated among independents, Trump's margin grew further with 44% going with Trump compared to only 19% for Biden.
Trump's lead among independents comes just as all but one of his Republican challengers have dropped out and endorsed the former president, with Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tim Scott throwing their names behind Trump. DeSantis took a parting shot at lone challenger Nikki Haley in his campaign video on X. "He has my endorsement because we can't go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear or a repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents," DeSantis said.
The survey was taken January 14-16 among 1,660 U.S. adult citizens.
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