President Joe Biden appears to be losing ground among voters who say they will "definitely vote" in the 2024 election, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released this week.
Most national polls continue to predict a tight race between Biden and former President Donald Trump, with most showing the candidates either tied or one having a slim lead, depending on the survey.
The Marist poll indicates a troubling trend for Biden with analysis showing a 7-point reversal since April among those registered voters who will say they will "definitely vote."
On April 22, the poll showed Biden with a 3-point lead nationally and a 6-point lead among those surveyed who will definitely vote. By Tuesday, the candidates were tied nationally, with Trump up 1 point among those registered voters who say they definitely will vote in November.
Speaking to Newsweek on Thursday, Todd Landman, professor of political science at Nottingham University in the U.K., said the election is too far away to claim that a particular shift is significant.
"It is quite difficult at this stage in the campaign to say whether these shifts in public opinion are significant," he said. "If we assume that there is a 3-point margin of error, then any significance only starts to appear between May and June. It is also important to take into account question wording, where the use of 'definitely' versus 'very likely' can affect the inferences drawn from the surveys."
Landman noted that the unique nature of the electoral college system in the U.S. makes national polling less predictive of an outcome.
"At a national level, therefore, the candidates are truly neck and neck, but for me, the real challenge for both candidates is how well they can do in the swing states and how they are polling among independents and undecided voters, and whether the November election has a high turnout," he said.
James Morley III ✉
James Morley III is a writer with more than two decades of experience in entertainment, travel, technology, and science and nature.
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