The melting of the Arctic Ocean is opening up travel paths through the north and leading to a subsequent military buildup as countries like China and Russia conduct freedom of operation missions, if not stake claims on previously unnavigable water, The Guardian reports.
"Right now, the reasons we are seeing more military activity is that countries are worried by the spectre of open water," U.K. professor Klaus Dodds told The Guardian. "The unique Arctic security architecture has shape and form that come from natural extremities.
"If the Arctic becomes just another ocean, this breaks down. It's elemental."
Currently, cargo companies that use the northern shipping lanes already must pay Russia. But this will change as the sea ice recedes and Arctic routes open up in international waters, according to the Guardian report. China, which has declared itself a “near-Arctic nation”, is among the countries exploring this area.
It is projected the Arctic will be ice-free during the summers by 2035, according to the report, as University of Bergen professor Tore Furevik estimates sea ice is melting at a rate of 10,000 tons per second.
"We're heading for a new and uncertain Arctic with ramifications for nature and politics," Furevik told Politico. "We should strive to be less suspicious, less hostile, and more open-minded if we are to deal with a problem that we have so recklessly created."
The opening of travel across the North Pole has military benefits as a untapped sea route, but it is not necessarily because of anticipated conflict as much as commerce importance.
"There is no direct link between climate change and conflict," former Norwegian defense minister Espen Barth Eide told the Guardian. "It's not because there is an immediate threat, it's that, as an area becomes more important, it's natural to have a heightened military presence . . . to some extent that is happening now in the Arctic."
But there stands to be territorial disputes, according to the report.
"In Europe, you have military installations that are used for peaceful purposes. Why it that OK in Europe, but not in Russia?" Russian Ambassador to Norway Teimuraz Ramishvili told the Guardian.
"For us, this is a matter of sustainable development of Russian territory. This is not open water, it is Russian territory. The Arctic isn't a nature resort. It’s a place where Russians have lived for a long time."
Navy Secretary Richard Spencer is concerned the U.S. is woefully behind in the region.
"Everyone's up there but us," Secretary Spencer said in June, per the report. "The threat is back on. This is an area . . . we need to focus on.
". . . Can you imagine a Carnival line cruise ship having a problem, and the Russians do the search and do the extraction?"
While warning freedom of operation missions might be "provocative," Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said they are justified.
"It's important for the U.S. to project military strength, but there should be no intention to be unduly provocative," she said, per the report. "Under this administration, we are not assigning a significant priority to our role as an Arctic nation. There is a void."
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