Israel Is Not Beholden to Any Iran Deal

Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid has made it very clear, on the record and privately, that he's not opposed to a nuclear deal with Iran.

Lapid is opposed to this deal with Iran.

From the perspective of Israel, Nuke Deal Circa 2022 is extremely dangerous to their survival. And so too, for the world.

Israeli leadership has taken a far different approach as negotiations are underway for this agreement with Iran --- than they did in 2015, when the original agreement was composed, configured, and signed.

This time around Jerusalem has been actively talking, negotiating, and making their objections very clear to the Biden administration.

Team Biden is paying attention.

In fact, several of Israel’s objections have already been incorporated into U.S. requirements for a deal before it can be signed --- several have not.

In 2015, things were different:

Benjamin Netanyahu was Israel's prime minister, and Barack Obama was president of the United States. Their relationship can best be described as "cantankerous."

Netanyahu was not a big fan of Obama, and neither was Barack a member of the Bibi fan club. Did politeness exist? Yes, but that cordiality was tinged with belligerence.

Thus, it's really not all that surprising that Israel’s objections, as the deal was being cobbled together, were outright ignored by the United States.

While Israel has not been invited to the negotiating table, Jerusalem is aware of all that's going on. Israel knows the details of the deal.

The first of Israel’s two notable objections were over Iran’s insistence that their Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) be removed from the U.S. list of terror groups. The second is Iran’s desire to gloss-over all open cases of their International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) violations.

Israel explained why that would be very dangerous.

The United States heard, understood, stood their ground, adopting Israel’s recommended changes about the IRGC, then integrated them into the agreement.

And then Iran backed down and they, too, accepted the change.

As for Israel’s second objection, despite IAEA demands, Iran has removed many of the watchdog’s cameras, making monitoring of nuclear activities --- and shenanigans --- difficult at best; often times impossible.

According to Israel, dozens of monitoring issues need to be clarified, and a deal should not be completed until those are resolved. That caveat was also accepted by the U.S. and added into the pre-agreement. But not by Iran.

Style, nuance, and tone are critical in the art of diplomacy. They are even more important than being correct. That was a lesson hard learned by Netanyahu when even very valid Israeli objections were ignored in 2015.

Fast forward to 2022, Prime Minister Lapid is insisting that Israel work very hard with, not against, Washington.

Washington is listening.

On the other hand David "Dadi" Barnea, the head of Israel’s Mossad, their clandestine services, has been rather less diplomatic.

Barnea does not have to be diplomatic, he is a spy.

Barnea maintains that this new Iran deal is a big mistake which will onoly destabilize the region. He explains that Iran has lied and cheated about their nuclear ambitions. That the reason they want nuclear capabilities is to distribute them and to threaten the region --- especially Israel.

Iran thrives on keeping their hands clean by designating proxies to do their dirty work.

Barnea further explains that Iran’s ultimate objective --- which will be obtained through this nuclear deal, is to attain a bomb.

And the deal, when configured to their desires and demands, will give them permission to do just that. So of course Iran wants a deal.

Barnea further explains that Israel is working very hard to make certain that Iran does not reach a nuclear threshold whereby Teheran is capable of assembling a nuclear weapon for themselves --- or for anyone else.

According to Barnea: "Our commitment remains regardless of any deal … They are signing a similar deal to the one signed in 2015 but the world has changed. The Iranians have developed advanced centrifuges, and the threats and the technologies are different."

Barnea is correct. So why is the United States so bent on sitting at the negotiating table, continuing the conversation and inevitable --- enabling Iran?

This administration, like that of Obama's, does not understand the nature of the Iranian threat. It's an unfortunate and hard truth to grapple with. The United States is incapable of grasping the life and death nature of an agreement that may go wrong with Iran.

They think of it not in terms of life and death but like any other bad agreement or an agreement that goes awry.

The U.S. is now playing a game of risk and percentages. And in their eyes the risk is very low that Iran will attack Israel in the near future.

Low risk means good deal.

So why not move ahead with the deal?

Because, simply stated, it doesn’t work for Israel.

Israel cannot tolerate any percentage of a nuclear risk. Even 10% or 1% sounds reasonable to the U.S. as a risk that can be absorbed. But the United States has nothing to lose. Israel does. For Israel, even a 1% risk is too high. 1% means the deaths of thousands of people — not mere percentage points.

And that's why, come what may, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid has made it perfectly cleat that, whatever the U.S. and the other nations sitting at the nuclear negotiating table with Iran sign on to, Israel is not beholden to any deal with Iran.

Micah Halpern is a political and foreign affairs commentator. He founded "The Micah Report" and hosts "Thinking Out Loud with Micah Halpern," a weekly TV program, and "My Chopp," a daily radio spot. Follow him on Twitter @MicahHalpern. Read Micah Halpern's Reports — More Here.