With recent events in Venezuela, geopolitics are heating up an already volatile world. The removal of Nicolás Maduro from power has injected fresh uncertainty far beyond the borders of Venezuela. Oil, gold, and foreign exchange markets are once again being forced to price political risk in real time.
The Maduro operation has reignited broader questions that investors have been quietly asking for years. Does China move on Taiwan? President Xi has openly said he wants to be ready for "reunification" by 2027. Does Iran become the next flashpoint? Each question adds another layer of risk to an already fragile global system.
Amid this uncertainty, one relationship is holding firm. Gold reacted immediately to the political chaos. Following the Maduro operation, gold prices jumped, reflecting a familiar flight to safety.
Historically, gold follows a reliable pattern during crises: prices rise as safe-haven demand surges, then retreat as tensions ease. What experienced traders often call “buy the rumor, sell the news.” But this time may be different.
In a global economy defined by persistent inflation, record debt, and weakening currencies, gold is starting from a historically high base. It is still responding to crises. But instead of fully retreating afterward, it appears increasingly likely to hold higher ground.
Gold’s Immediate Response to Political Chaos
Following the January 3, 2026 operation to capture Maduro, gold prices jumped roughly 1.8% to 2.8% in early trading. Spot gold surged into the $4,408–$4,424 range per ounce. U.S. gold futures followed suit. Silver reacted even more aggressively, spiking 7.9%.1
The price surge reflected more than a headline reaction. Traders were pricing in political instability in a key oil-producing nation and a broader increase in global uncertainty. Early commentary suggests gold may settle in the $4,300–$4,400 range, with room to move higher if the conflict spreads or energy supplies are disrupted. For now, it is simply too soon to know where prices will ultimately stabilize.
Experienced traders saw the move as significant, but not surprising. When geopolitical risk erupts, gold is typically the first responder.
Why Gold Reacts First to Geopolitical Shocks
Gold has earned its reputation as the world’s premier safe-haven asset over centuries. When trust in governments, currencies, or financial systems wavers, capital tends to migrate toward assets with intrinsic value and global acceptance. Gold fits that role uniquely. It is not tied to corporate earnings, government solvency, or monetary promises.
During geopolitical shocks, this flight to safety often shows up in gold before it fully appears in equities or credit markets. Its liquidity and universal recognition allow investors to reposition quickly.
Gold also serves as a hedge against low-probability, high-impact “tail risks.” Wars, sanctions, leadership removals, and energy disruptions threaten the wiring of the financial system itself. In Venezuela’s case, fears surrounding broader instability turn gold into the insurance of choice.
Energy Risk Amplifies the Move
Energy markets act as a force multiplier for gold. Oil and shipping disruptions do more than raise costs. They fuel inflation fears and strain supply chains. Venezuela’s instability quickly put oil back in focus. Higher energy prices revive stagflation fears and reinforce gold’s role as both a store of value and a hedge against currency erosion.
Gold and War: A Consistent Historical Pattern
Gold’s relationship with war and geopolitical stress is well documented. In the 21st century alone, the pattern has repeated:
- After the September 11 attacks in 2001, gold jumped from the mid-$260s into the high $280s and $290s, later establishing a higher floor.
- In the lead-up to the Iraq War, gold climbed into the mid-$300s, spiked near $380 during the invasion, and continued trending higher afterward.
- During the Arab Spring and Eurozone crisis, gold surged from roughly $1,100 to nearly $1,900 before settling well above prior levels.
- Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 pushed gold above $2,000, with subsequent years seeing a structural repricing driven by central bank demand.
The Venezuela episode fits squarely into this historical framework. Gold entered 2025 already above $2,600, climbed into the $4,000s as macro pressures compounded, and added another incremental war premium after Maduro’s capture.2
A Shifting Pattern in a Changing World
Traditionally, gold spikes during crises and retreats when tensions ease. Now, that dynamic may be evolving.
The global economy faces persistent inflation, record levels of sovereign debt, and falling confidence in fiat currencies. Gold is starting these crises from a historically elevated base. While it continues to respond to geopolitical shocks, the pullbacks have become shallower. Each episode has tended to leave prices at a higher plateau.
This raises an important point. When uncertainty is baked into the system, gold tends to hold its gains.
Looking Ahead
Analysts are openly questioning what comes next. The Maduro operation has already added a war premium to gold prices. Concerns remain that it could encourage further geopolitical action, whether involving Taiwan or Iran.
Taiwan represents a far larger systemic risk due to its role in global semiconductors and shipping lanes. Iran, as a critical energy state, carries its own set of inflationary and market implications. Markets are watching closely, and gold is already reflecting that vigilance.
Conclusion
Geopolitics are heating up, testing the old rules. And no one knows what framework will replace them.
As investors make a flight to safety, physical precious metals have once again demonstrated their stability in an unstable world. For those looking to protect themselves for the long term, because who knows when global tensions will truly ease, consider learning more about owning gold and silver. A Gold IRA offers an additional layer of security.
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Max Baecker is the President of American Hartford Gold (AHG), the nation’s largest retailer of precious metals.
Notes
1. https://english.aawsat.com/business/5226384-gold-surges-us-capture-venezuela-president-spurs-safe-haven-demand
2. https://www.americanhartfordgold.com/gold-price-charts/
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