It is the sensational and late-breaking news of Rep. Tony Gonzales' relationship with a former staffer who subsequently killed herself by self-immolation that will almost certainly doom the Texas Republican in the primary on March 3.
A private poll conducted for primary opponent Brandon Herrera showed the Republican challenger, who came within 400 votes of deposing the two-term lawmaker in the 2024 primary, now leading Gonzales by a margin of roughly 40% to 20% among likely voters in the 23rd District (San Antonio-West Texas).
Assuming YouTuber Herrera (known as the "AK Guy" for his free-wheeling comments about gun ownership) survives the general election, there will be at least one significant difference in his voting record from that of Gonzales.
Where the incumbent is a strong supporter of U.S. aid to Ukraine in its four-year-old war with Russia, Herrera takes the opposite position.
Herrera has vigorously denounced Gonzales for his vote for the April 2024 supplemental measure that provided $60 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine.
112 Republicans voted against the bill, 101 supported it, and one — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser — voted present.
The bill passed the House by a vote of 311-to-112.
Although incumbent House members genuinely back their colleagues in primaries, three Republican House members who opposed the Ukraine supplemental — Reps. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., Bob Good, R-Va., and Eli Crane, R-Ariz. — all weighed in for Herrera against Gonzales in the 2024 primary.
Gonzales' likely demise will represent the first defeat of a sitting Republican House member who supports Ukraine by an opponent who opposes aid to the embattled country.
"Last cycle there were no primary losses for Ukraine supporters," Steve Moore, founder of the Ukraine Freedom Project, told Newsmax.
"[House Appropriations Committee Chair] Tom Cole had a self-funding opponent in Oklahoma's 2nd District who attacked his support of Ukraine and Cole won big [64-to-25%]."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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