The news Monday night that Rep. Tom Garrett, R-Va., had decided to call it quits fueled a now familiar discussion among political scientists and operatives in both parties.
With one-termer Garrett becoming the 44th Republican House Member to retire, resign, or seek another office, observers increasingly ask, is the stage set for Democrats to have a tsunami-style sweep of the House akin to that of the 59 seats they picked up in the "Watergate Year" of 1974?
Former National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Davis, R-Va., is not sure.
"The generic ballot is not bad for Republicans and the economy is good," Davis told Newsmax. "This does not look like 1974, but there are five months to go."
Noting that Garrett had suffered embarrassing publicity about using congressional staffers to pick up his laundry and had admitted alcoholism, Davis pointed out "any of the leading Republicans mentioned for nomination now are stronger than the incumbent would have been."
Taking issue with Davis on the likely national scenario this fall was veteran political scientist and author Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute.
"The large number of retirements is a sign of a wave coming," Ornstein told us. "I'm still skeptical it could reach 60 — mostly because the negative partisanship may result in a higher Republican turnout."
Ornstein added such a turnout among Republicans "is not so much because they are wild about Trump or Republicans in Congress, but to keep the evil other side from prevailing."
But he underscored his belief that all signs — one of them being the highest Republican exodus from the House since World War II — "point to a significant blue wave for the House this November."
Henry Olsen, Senior Fellow of the Ethics and Policy Center and author of the much-praised "Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism," said he did not believe "this record number of departures is a clear sign of impending doom. That's not to say that the Republicans won't have a terrible election, but the large number of retirements is simply a concidence."
Olsen noted "13 Republican House Members have taken a chance on moving up to higher office, six others retired after already reaching the peak of their careers [five sitting committee chairmen and Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis.]. Others have been around forever and decided it was time to leave, while six tripped up over their own failings — Garrett and Reps. Trent Franks [R-Ariz.], Pat Meehan [R-Pa.], Tim Murphy [R-Pa.], Blake Farenthold [R-Texas], and Joe Barton [R-Texas]. Two — Jason Chaffetz [R-Utah] and Pat Tiberi [R-Ohio] left for extremely high-paying jobs.
"There actually are very few Charlie Dents [R-Pa.] or Trey Gowdys [R-S.C.] who just seem tired of the grind or are fearful of an epic partisan wipeout."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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