Republicans Are Real Winners of King v. Burwell Ruling

As disappointed as most Republican politicians sounded over the Supreme Court’s King v. Burwell ruling on Thursday, the GOP is the almost certainly the short-term winner from the 6-3 decision upholding the federal subsidies portion of Obamacare.

According to a group of national political analysts who spoke to Newsmax shortly after Burwell, the high court has taken the burden off Republican members of Congress for coming up with an alternative to replace the subsidies that would have been killed by an opposite ruling.

However, the same analysts agreed that with more people signed up for Obamacare by 2016, after five years and two favorable court decisions, it might be more difficult for the eventual Republican presidential nominee to argue for its repeal and replacement.

"Burwell was a big victory for Obama himself, which makes most Republican leaders angry," Dan Schnur, head of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, told Newsmax. "But they are privately breathing a sigh of relief.

"They know it is also a big win for Republicans in Congress and an even bigger win for the Republican candidates.

"Now they can argue against Obamacare and talk about how to replace it. But they can have that argument without worrying about the public backlash that would come from voters afraid of losing subsidies for their coverage."

Burwell, according to Schnur, "puts the debate back in the realm of politics without the real-world urgency."

G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania, agreed.

"Yes, despite all the rhetoric, Republicans have gotten a break here," Madonna told us.

"With a ruling hostile to the administration, Republicans would have had to come up with a plan to cover 8.7 million folks now getting the subsidy with a private sector plan. So far, they have not done that."

The Burwell decision "frees Republicans from the difficult task of formulating a single response," said Washington Examiner columnist Michael Barone, principal author of the "Almanac of American Politics."

"This avoids what could be a year-long fight between congressional Republicans and a veto-threatening President Obama."

Republican operatives who spoke to Newsmax agreed with this assessment of a short-term gain for their party.

Veteran North Carolina GOP consultant Marc Rotterman, for example, said without hesitation: "Burwell gives Republicans some breathing room as it pushes the issue of healthcare into the election cycle."

Rotterman added that the pro-Obamacare ruling "energizes conservative groups to continue the fight and reinforces the attitude of several Republican presidential candidates — Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz — to call for repeal of Obamacare.

"This is the second time that [Chief Justice John] Roberts has shocked conservatives with his interpretation of the Constitution, and he seems to be channeling another Republican-appointed chief justice, Earl Warren."

But both Republican operatives and political analysts agreed that the passage of time could weaken the drive to repeal and replace Obamacare as a major issue for Republicans.

"In the long term, this could get real thorny for Republicans," former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele told us. "Given that it's been five years since the law was passed, there have now been two [Supreme Court] rulings upholding the law and millions of Americans are currently accessing healthcare. What a Republican president and Congress say to a mom who has healthcare for her kids for the first time will matter."

According to Steele, "The danger remains: What will they replace Obamacare with and how will a very suspicious general election voter view their answer?"

Franklin & Marshall’s Madonna believes that "the eventual Republican nominee will need to have a plan and that’s a problem. What happens by the time 12 million Americans are enrolled [in Obamacare] and getting the subsidy?

"That’s a huge problem, to replace what many will view as an entitlement."

Colorado State Republican Chairman Ryan Call said that "Americans understand that if Hillary Clinton becomes the next president, the chance of repealing and replacing Obamacare is exactly zero."

Although Call strongly believes "every one of the Republican candidates running for president stands to gain from Burwell," he warned that "this will happen only if those candidates offer more than shallow sound bites and right-wing rhetoric."

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax.