Putin's Next Move Likely to Copy Georgia Attack in '08

Having recognized the Russian-speaking provinces in Ukraine as independent states Monday night, Vladimir Putin is now almost certain to take a page from the playbook of his 2008 attack on Georgia and send in troops to ensure the rebel-held turf stays in the hands of Russian speakers.

President Joe Biden last night signed an executive order banning new investment, trade and financing by the U.S. in the breakaway regions. But a senior administration official emphasized to reporters that these steps were separate from stronger sanctions "should Russia further invade Ukraine."

But an invasion appears inevitable.

Journalists who covered Russia agreed that Putin is now poised to orchestrate a repeat of what historians consider the first war of the 21st century — the 2008 Russian strike against Georgia on behalf of the self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The Russo-Georgian war, which lasted from Aug. 7-12, 2008, resulted in 192,000 displaced persons and 30,000 ethnic Georgians not being allowed to return to South Ossetia.

The Georgia Parliament and much of the world has since recognized Abkhazia as "Russian-occupied territory."

Russia suffered relatively little in terms of its standing in the world following the attack on Georgia.

"For Putin, what happens next in Ukraine is the same as in Georgia 14 years ago — a war story," Craig Copetas, onetime reporter for The Wall Street Journal stationed in Moscow, told Newsmax. "We all know America will not send troops into Ukraine, but it would be worthwhile to explore the willingness of the U.S. and NATO to supply weapons to the insurgency that will certainly come in the wake of invasion."

"Georgia was the first big warning signaling the return of military force," said Laure Mandeville, onetime Moscow correspondent for the venerable French publication Le Figaro and author of two critically-acclaimed books on Russia. "But I think it is much more serious now because what he wants now is not only to slow down Ukraine and bleed it, but get it back in Russia!"

Mandeville added that "Putin is emboldened by the immense political weakness of the West, the U.S. included. He made it absolutely clear in his speech [Monday evening], which had a kind of mad historical obsession to it. He said Ukraine does not exist and was invented by [Vladimir] Lenin … The whole thing makes clear he is ready for a big fight with the West. It's very frightening because we are paying for all of our failures to react more strongly before."

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.