Pennsylvania proved to be Trump country in its 2016 presidential primary and, even as the latest indictment of the former president was coming down Tuesday, observers of the Keystone State's politics generally agree he is the candidate to beat in the April 23 primary.
But this could change.
And, an interesting "quirk" in the rules for electing delegates could easily work against former President Donald Trump. While he could easily repeat his '16 performance, when he swept the primary with 56%, Trump may find himself with far fewer delegates than a triumph at the polls would indicate.
"Under Pennsylvania election law, delegate races are completely separate from the presidential 'beauty contest,'" explained Lowman Henry of the conservative Lincoln Institute. "In other words, winning the statewide votes get you nothing except bragging rights."
As Henry noted, "all delegates run 'uncommitted' and are so listed that way on the ballot itself. It is up to the campaigns to educate voters as to who their delegate candidates are — and the delegates are free to vote however they wish once elected, even on the first ballot."
A Quinnipiac poll conducted in late June, the most recent survey of likely Pennsylvania Republican voters, found Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 49% to 25% and all other contenders trailing far behind.
"Trump is the clear favorite, but his mounting legal troubles are a problem," Keith Naughton, political scientist, author, and principal at the Silent Majority Strategies public affairs firm, told Newsmax. "Right now it's easy for Republican voters to defiantly back Trump, but that could change once the voting starts. If Trump stumbles in Iowa and New Hampshire, it could mean chaos in the Republican primaries."
Naughton added that "Trump's people in Pennsylvania know how to play the delegate game, and I think every other candidate is really nowhere on that front. But no delegate is formally committed to anyone. Trump's delegates could all defect from him at the convention if they wanted and the same for any other hopeful's delegates."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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