The big question in the U.S. following the announcement Friday morning that Japan’s ailing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would soon step down is how will his successor deal with China.
Administration sources privately agree that there is growing concern within the State Department and the White House about whether the next prime minister of Japan will take a harder line with China or pursue a convivial relationship.
There is particular concern with Abe’s departure and succession, sources told us, because they come at a time when Chinese President Xi JinPing is assuming even more power. According to several published reports, Xi is poised to take the title of Chinese Party Chairman—originated by Mao Tse-Tung in 1942 and last used by a Chinese leader in 1982.
Since there is no term limit on a party chairman’s tenure, Xi will be able to maintain power after his second term as Chinese president is up in 2023.
According to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) by David Stewart, former foes China and Japan “pursued a pragmatic ‘tactical détente’ or ‘new start’ in the relationship, emphasizing shared interests in trade, tourism, and diplomacy.”
Japan is currently China’s third-largest export marker, and China is Japan’s largest export market. In addition, the JiJi Press of Japan reported that the Chinese urging of Japan “not to make a big deal [out of Covid-19]” led to the slow response by the government—and resulting unpopularity for Abe.
China also tries to sway Japanese opinion through Chubun News (Chinese Review Weekly) is the most circulated Chinese-language newspaper targeting Chinese residents in Japan.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is soon expected to set the date for the choosing of a party president, who will become prime minister. The early favorite is Yoshihide Suga, 72, cabinet secretary to Abe and roughly the equivalent of White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.
The other leading contenders are Fumio Kishida, former foreign minister, and LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, both 63.
“Ishiba keeps making pro-China remarks these days,” Hanako Cho, editor-in-chief of the English version libertarian Liberty Web,told Newsmax, “Mr. Kishida and Mr. Suga do not have any clear political philosophy. If they think deepening the tie with China is beneficial for Japanese economy they will continue to do so.”
Cho added that “what we need is the pressure from the U.S. in order to establish a more cooperative relationship with the U.S. Otherwise lawmakers such as [Toshihiro] Nikai [a former Trade Minister and leader of one of the major LDP factions in the parliament] will continue to wield power. His faction is financially well funded could control the next cabinet, steering the LDP to a pro-China party to a great extent.”
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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