Many aides on Capitol Hill believe GOP nominee Donald Trump will lose the election, but they disagree on whether Republicans will maintain the advantage in the House and Senate, according to the latest CQ Roll Call Capitol Insiders survey.
Regarding the Senate seats, Republican aides that took the survey:
- The GOP will retain control: 51 percent.
- Democrats will gain control: 28 percent.
- 50/50 split: 21 percent.
Democrats appeared more confident that their party would win the Senate:
- The GOP will retain: 7 percent.
- Democrats will gain control: 86 percent.
- 50/50 split: 7 percent.
"I think what they're saying is that we'll be all right. Parties go through changes. This one is a unique change because Trump is an unusual candidate, but we'll come out of this," said Jeffrey Taylor, a former chief of staff to ex-Indiana GOP Rep. David McIntosh.
Among the Republican aides, numbers are low in support of Trump. Thirteen percent believe in the real-estate mogul's chances, but none of the Democrats believe he has a shot.
As for the composition of the House, aides from both parties reach the same conclusion.
Among Republicans:
- The GOP retains control: 99 percent.
- Democrats take over: 1 percent.
Among Democrats:
- GOP retains: 93 percent.
- Democrats take over: 7 percent.
Few aides think a Clinton presidency would alleviate the gridlock on Capitol Hill. Forty-seven percent of Democrats said it will make no difference, while 49 percent of Republicans believe she will make it worse.
Senior congressional aides from both parties told Reuters the Senate would switch to Democrats.
"The reason we don't hold the Senate, if we don't, is because of Donald Trump," one aide said.
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