Brash billionaire Donald Trump's derisive portrayals of undocumented immigrants as violent criminals and his unyielding position on illegal immigration is paying huge dividends in the polls.
According to the Washington Post political blog, The Fix, he's all but guaranteed a place on the debate stage in August.
Fox News is hosting the first Republican debate Aug. 6 in Cleveland. The top 10 candidates — chosen from an average of the five most recent national polls leading up to the debate — will be invited to participate.
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On June 30, The Fix averaged the five most recent national polls and placed Trump in the No. 8 spot. Real Clear Politics showed Trump with 4.2 percent support.
But since the fallout from Trump's remarks — he and the Trump brand were canned by Univision and NBC Universal, which aired Trump's Miss Universe and Miss USA pageants, ESPN, the PGA, and Macy's, among others — The Donald is enjoying double-digit numbers.
At 15 percent, Real Clear Politics' average, Trump trails the leader, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, by a half a point.
"And given that there have been only three polls taken this month and that the Fox debate is on August 6, there's basically no chance that enough new polls can emerge showing Trump doing badly enough that he won't make the top ten," according to The Fix.
A July 13 to 15
Fox News poll of a random national sample of 1,019 registered voters found Trump topped the list of potential candidates the survey participants said they'd like to see as the GOP's nominee.
Eighteen percent of those polled chose Trump, followed by 15 percent for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and 14 percent for Bush. The remainder of the vast Republican field received single-digit support.
From March through early June, the New York real estate mogul vacillated between 3 percent and 5 percent in the same poll, but catapulted to 11 percent in late June, just after his June 16 announcement speech in which he characterized illegal immigrants from Mexico as rapists, drug-runners and criminals.
The outspoken billionaire, according to The Fix, has gained support in practically every segment of the electorate, including 15 points with those earning less than $50,000 a year, 12 points with men, 13 points with evangelicals and 8 points with conservatives.
The Fix columnist Phillip Bump predicted that there are only three possible scenarios in which Trump would not make the cut: He drops out, his poll numbers nosedive and there are five new polls to reflect it, or "Fox bars him on a technicality."
Bump points out that even if Trump tanked in four of the five next polls, he would still average 3.6 points, "certainly enough to make the cut."
And the network isn't likely to boot him on a technicality, he added, since "Fox is in the ratings business."
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