It may not look good for Marco Rubio in his quest to capture the GOP presidential nomination, but
The New York Times' top numbers-cruncher says the Florida senator can't be counted out, even though he distantly trails front-runner Donald Trump.
"Could [Rubio] really lose every state on Super Tuesday and still stand a chance of becoming the nominee? The delegate math says yes," Nate Cohn writes Friday in his Times column "The Upshot."
The big test for Rubio, according to Cohn, will be March 15, when North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois, Florida and Missouri hold their primaries in which the winner takes all.
Before that pivotal day, GOP rules prohibit states from a blanket awarding of all delegates to the top banana and most split them proportionally to the top vote-getters.
"As a result, it will be difficult on Super Tuesday for Mr. Trump to amass a significant majority of delegates if the other two major candidates — Mr. Rubio and Ted Cruz — clear the thresholds (at highest 20 percent) for earning proportional delegates," Cohn writes.
In fact, if next week's Super Tuesday contests split the vote in certain percentages — such as 34-25-25 between Trump, Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz — losing every state would still give Rubio 164 delegates based on his clearing of 20 percent from each one.
Cohn says if Rubio goes on to win Florida and capture its 99 delegates "it could balance out nearly all losses" from Super Tuesday.
"Winning by March 15 is what matters for Mr. Rubio, not the math," Cohn writes, adding that if Cruz or Ohio Gov. John Kasich pull out of the race, it would give Rubio "the chance to build a coalition of ideologically consistent conservative voters and more mainstream, well-educated conservatives."
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