Candidates Sharpening Swords, Attacks for Iowa Showdown

The Iowa caucuses are less than 30 days away, marking a likely do-or-die date for several of the 11 GOP candidates still vying for their party's nomination for the presidency.

"Iowa doesn't always define the race, but it can chop the field in half or at least thin the herd," said Jamie Johnson, a long-time GOP operative in the state told The Hill.

"It will certainly separate the contenders from the pretenders and sling-shot some into New Hampshire while sending the rest home."

According to RealClearPolitics, front-runner Donald Trump is maintaining his strong grip on the national polls, leading next-in-line Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 35 percent to 19 percent. However, that hold flips in Iowa, where the Texas conservative leads Trump by 31 percent to 27 percent.

But that doesn't mean the other candidates are giving up, even though Trump's nearest competitor in Iowa, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, trails him by just under 15 points. Other campaigns are already sharpening their attack ads and canvassing the state where the 2016 election season will officially open.

Cruz's power has been climbing thanks to the backing of some of Iowa's most influential conservatives, such as Rep. Steve King and Christian leader Bob Vander Plaats, reports the Hill. Vander Plaats' support is key, as the states' evangelicals generally control who wins the caucus, and he has backed the last two people to win the Iowa caucuses, Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.

Both Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and Southern Baptist minister, and Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator who has gained favor with evangelicals through his strong pro-life stance, are in this year's race as well and could once again attract the Christian voters. However, both are far behind in the state at this point, with Huckabee at about 3 percent and Santorum at under 1 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.

Meanwhile, with the Feb. 1 caucuses nearing, candidates and super PACs are starting to open their wallets, sharpening their swords as the battle nears. Ads for Rubio and his one-time mentor, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, are already throwing jabs, with Bush's camp attacking Rubio's on his voting record and Rubio's side calling Bush "desperate" with his claims.

Bush, though, has pulled back his TV ad buys a month before the crucial Iowa caucuses, preferring instead to double his ground staff in the state, including bringing staff into the colder weather from his campaign's Miami headquarters.

Even Trump, who has boasted since his campaign announcement last summer that he has spent very little on his campaign, told reporters last week that he plans to spend a "minimum of $2 million a week, and perhaps substantially more than that" for "big ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and they're going to be very substantial," reports CBS News.

Cruz's campaign is also spending heavily in Iowa, after raising tens of millions of dollars. His new year will kick off with a six-day "Cruzin' to Caucus" bus tour in Iowa, reports The Hill, but he'll face a heavy challenge from Rubio over his record on immigration.

Iowa, though, could prove to be Trump's downfall, as a loss in that early state could put a shadow over his poll wins since last summer. But one Iowa Republican official, requesting anonymity, told The Hill that the question is whether Trump's supporters will come out to vote.

"I'm not convinced they will, but if he can turn out just half of them he could blow the top off this thing," the official said.

But there are still others to deal with, and while they're considered long-shots, they're pushing hard in Iowa.

Huckabee, for example, on Thursday marked the 99th county he's visited in Iowa in a campaign strategy named after Iowa GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley, who visits each of the state's counties every year, reports The Des Moines Register. Huckabee, when announcing his candidacy, said he would visit all the state's counties, like he did in 2008 when he won the caucuses.

And then there's Ben Carson, who topped the polls in Iowa for about a month, but saw his numbers drop sharply after the race focus turned to national security, a topic that has given the retired neurosurgeon trouble. Also, three of Carson's top aides, including his campaign manager, stepped down on New Year's Eve, leaving the campaign in turmoil with less than a month to go before the caucuses open.

There is also strong infighting among several candidates hoping to beat Rubio out for at least the third place spot in the Iowa race. Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are all pushing hard for that spot, even though their polling numbers remain in the one-digit numbers.

Christie and Rubio, though, have not concentrated much on Iowa. Rubio has focused his attention more on a national level, while Christie is working more in New Hampshire.

Carly Fiorina, whose strong debate performances gave her a boost at times in the polls, is polling low, at about two points in Iowa, and earned some scorn in the Hawkeye State for choosing Iowa State over her own alma mater, Stanford, in Friday's Rose Bowl in a move that many saw as pandering for votes.

On Friday, reports SBNation.com, Fiorina tweeted her support for the caucus state's team, leading to ridicule online:

@CarlyFiorina If you can't stand up to the Hawkeyes how can you beat ISIS?
— pourmecoffee (@pourmecoffee) January 1, 2016

Meanwhile, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, also trending low in the polls, is planning a large push in Iowa this coming week, reports The Des Moines Register, when he'll visit 10 communities during a two-day campaign swing.

He also plans two town halls that will focus on his opposition to eminent domain, in counties where the Bakken pipeline is planned, a topic that could prove vital for Iowa farm owners fighting against a company that wants their land.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is keeping up her stronghold on the ticket, leading by 12.5 points over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa, but insiders say Sanders is wildly popular in the Iowa.

"His supporters are engaged and enthusiastic and want nothing more than to take down the front-runner in Iowa," Democratic strategist Andrew Feldman told The Hill. The independent senator pulls large crowds, and has a committed grassroots base, just like the senator who defeated Clinton in Iowa in 2008: Barack Obama.

Obama's win came after young people and independents — also who heavily back Sanders — came out in record numbers for the caucuses, giving Obama a historic victory that eventually led to the election of the nation's first African-American president, reports Time.

If Sanders can pull off the upset, he'll then head into New Hampshire where he's leading the polls, and could also pull off a win. But the Clinton campaign will likely turn out in full force to avoid another drumming like she got in 2008 in Iowa.

"She has a great organization in Iowa, knows the caucus system and remains the favorite there," Democratic strategist Craig Varoga told The Hill.

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