Donald Trump spoke at a rally in Tampa, Fla., on Wednesday where he touted new polls that showed his numbers among minority voters had increased — but according to The Washington Post, that information came from a single poll that has historically favored the billionaire.
"I don't know if you've seen what's happening, but over the last three weeks, the polls with African-American folks and Spanish-speaking folks, the Hispanics, Latinos, have gone way up. Way up. They've gone way up," Trump said.
He didn't specify which polls, or where he saw this increase, but the Post claims it "almost certainly" came from a Breitbart article reporting a "shock poll" showing Trump's support among African-American voters rose sixfold.
The Los Angeles Times/USC Dornsife tracking poll Breitbart mentions showed a brief spike just before Aug. 23, but it coincides with an increase in the margin of error, which the Post notes likely stems from a lower number of black respondents. The current Dornsife poll shows Trump's support among black voters back at 4.6 percent, or about where it was for weeks.
Jill Darling, the survey director for the poll, emailed the Post to explain the bump:
"In any survey, estimates among subgroups are more sensitive to shifts based on relatively small changes in the population's average opinion. So in our case, strongly held Trump support among even a very small number of participants can widen the margin of error and affect the estimate, as we've seen over the past few days. Therefore, we urge caution in over-interpreting these shifts or any others in our — or any poll's — sample subgroups as a reflection of change among the group overall."
Most recent tracking polls show Trump doing poorly with black voters, according to the Post, and "other than tracking polls, there aren't any major national polls that have been conducted both right after the conventions ended and more recently, meaning that this is all we've got in terms of figuring out what Trump's argument might be. It's why that Breitbart story — which got a lot of pickup — is the most likely culprit."
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