State-by-state polling suggests that Donald Trump could expect to win 265 of the 270 votes he needs to win the White House. And he is within spitting distance of the rest.
Trump now leads in all of the states that Mitt Romney carried 2012 — except in North Carolina. In the Tar Heel state, with 15 electoral votes, the race is tied according to realclearpolitics.com, but the trend data is in Trump’s direction. If he carries North Carolina, he would start with the 206 votes Romney got.
Add to that Ohio (18) where Trump is 3.3 points ahead, Florida (29) where he leads by 0.9 points, Iowa (6) where Trump is 1.4 points ahead, and Nevada (6) where he leads by 2 points Together these states would put Trump at 265 electoral votes.
And the other five he needs to win could come from the following states:
Most likely is Colorado (9) where the realclearpolitics.com average shows Clinton 1.7 points ahead. The most recent poll, from the University of Denver, has the race tied.
Also possible are New Hampshire (4) where Hillary leads by 3.3, Pennsylvania (20) which now backs Hillary by 3.4.
More problematic, but still possible, are Virginia (13) where Hillary is nursing a 4.7 point lead, Michigan (16) that Clinton leads by 5.7 points, and Wisconsin (10) where Hillary is 5.4 points ahead.
The trends are for Trump but he’s not there yet.
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