Democratic nominee Joe Biden narrowly leads President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona -- and by a wider margin in Wisconsin -- according to a set of New York Times/Siena College polls in those four critical swing states that together could decide the U.S. presidential election.
More than 92 million votes have already been cast ahead of the November 3 election, with the U.S. poised for potentially record turnout amid deep partisan divisions and a global pandemic that short-circuited the U.S. economy.
The swing state polls found:
- Arizona: Biden 49%-43% Trump
- Florida: Biden 47%-44% Trump
- Pennsylvania: Biden 49%-43% Trump
- Wisconsin: Biden 52%-41% Trump
The margin of error is 3.2 percentage points in Wisconsin and Florida; 3 points in Arizona and 2.4 points in Pennsylvania. The polls sampled more than 1,200 people in each state, and were conducted over a period ranging Oct. 26 to Oct. 31.
Trump carried all four of these states narrowly in 2016, as he won the presidential election over Hillary Clinton despite falling short in the popular vote. Polls show Biden running better than Clinton did four years ago, though analysts say Trump still has a viable path to an election win.
That path would likely require Trump winning at least two of the states in the Times polls released today, as well as several other states considered “toss ups” by nonpartisan election handicappers.
© Copyright 2023 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.