NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte delivered one of his starkest warnings to date on Thursday, declaring that Russia has already initiated a "covert campaign" against NATO members and may be preparing for the possibility of direct military confrontation within the next five years.
Speaking at a security forum in Berlin, Rutte said the alliance must confront the reality that Moscow's operations increasingly resemble a form of undeclared warfare targeting Western societies, infrastructure, and military readiness.
Rutte asserted that Russia is "already at war with NATO" through hybrid means, citing a series of sabotage attempts, cyber intrusions, and airspace violations that he said go well beyond provocation.
"Russia is escalating its covert campaign against our societies," he said, warning that the Kremlin's target list "is not limited to critical infrastructure, the defense industry, and military facilities."
According to Rutte, recent investigations across Europe point to a broader and more aggressive Russian playbook.
"There have been attacks on commercial warehouses and shopping centers," he said. "Explosives hidden in parcels. And Poland is now investigating sabotage against its railway network."
He added that these activities represent a marked intensification of Russian interference aimed at undermining NATO cohesion.
Rutte also highlighted what he described as "reckless airspace violations" throughout 2024 and 2025, including Russian drones entering Polish and Romanian airspace and fighter jets straying dangerously close to Estonia.
"Such incidents put lives in danger and raise the risk of escalation," he said. While most incidents have ended without confrontation, NATO officials fear that repeated violations—whether accidental or deliberate—could trigger a rapid escalation cycle.
He stressed that Russia's ambitions extend beyond Europe's eastern flank.
"The Arctic and the Atlantic are additional avenues," he said, describing them as reminders of the alliance's strategic depth and the necessity of maintaining strong deterrence on land, at sea, and in the air.
NATO, he noted, has already bolstered its eastern defenses through Operation Eastern Sentry and increased maritime protection under Baltic Sentry, initiatives designed to protect undersea cables, energy infrastructure, and shipping lanes from sabotage.
Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the November attack on his nation's railway was "perhaps the most dangerous situation for the security of the Polish state."
The Tusk government has since deployed 10,000 troops to guard critical infrastructure throughout the country.
In September, Poles saw the harsh reality of that war when 19 Russian drones entered their airspace. After F-16s were scrambled, four drones were shot down with one hitting a residential community with no casualties.
Warsaw quickly called the attack a "large scale provocation" and invoked NATO's Article 4, asking for consultations with the Alliance.
Russia's goal appears to be not only to disrupt daily life but also to strategically erode Western resolve, fracture the continent's solidarity, and inject a persistent sense of uncertainty into daily life.
The attacks across Europe have become so frequent and pointed, some are beginning to believe NATO itself is under attack and a response against Russia is warranted.
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, an Italian who heads the NATO Military Committee, said "pre-emptive attacks" are an option, telling the Financial Times in December that the Alliance may have to use a more "aggressive" approach. The Admiral reiterated that a military response against Russia would be a "defensive" action.
Since 2022, the frequency of these hybrid incidents has surged, sending shockwaves from Scandinavia to Central Europe.
Across Europe, incidents of sabotage and digital disruption are currently mounting, increasing in frequency and in sophistication.
Such hybrid attacks have included:
-In November 2024, two fiber-optic communications cables in the Baltic Sea — one linking Finland and Germany, another between Sweden and Lithuania — were severed.
-In October 2022, saboteurs cut Deutsche Bahn railway's fiber-optic cables, crippling the train signaling network across northern Germany.
-Waves of arson attacks have hit commercial centers in Poland and Lithuania. In May 2024, a Warsaw shopping mall saw over 1,000 stores set ablaze at night. Poland said Russia was behind the attack.
-Russian agents have also been jamming GPS systems across Europe, causing mayhem for airlines. In September 2025, an aircraft carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen found its navigation systems jammed while flying through Bulgarian airspace.
-In recent weeks, Russia's partner Belarus released air balloons into Lithuanian airspace, temporarily closing the country's commercial traffic.
-And all across Europe, drone incursions are occurring across the continent — including in France, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Romania, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Finland — with most targeting airports, military bases, ports, nuclear facilities, and critical infrastructure.
According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) issued this summer, Russia's hybrid attacks against Europe have intensified dramatically in the past year.
The report states that Moscow's strategy here is to force NATO countries, especially Poland, to allocate more resources to homeland security and away from NATO's eastern edge, including Ukraine.
Russian President Putin told a press conference recently his nation is "ready for war" with Europe.
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