Oil production in the Middle East has plummeted due to the Iran war, according to data released Monday by OPEC.
Crude production from countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement, which includes key Middle Eastern producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, fell sharply in March.
Total OPEC+ crude output fell about 7.7 million barrels per day from the previous month to about 35.06 million barrels per day.
The report ties that decline directly to geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Middle East, which have constrained crude flows and shipping activity.
Those disruptions tightened global supply and forced refiners, especially in Europe and Asia, to seek replacement barrels from other regions.
At the same time, OPEC suggests that the disruption is short-term rather than structural.
The supply outlook still expects stable or modest growth outside OPEC+, while demand for OPEC+ crude is projected to rise to 42.9 million bpd in 2026, implying the group of largely Middle Eastern producers will remain central to balancing the market.
OPEC said global oil demand will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, unchanged from its previous forecast, with most of the growth coming from developing countries, particularly China, India, and other parts of Asia.
It also kept its global economic growth forecast at 3.1% for 2026, citing resilience in major economies including the United States, China, and India.
Looking ahead, OPEC expects demand to strengthen in the second half of the year, driven by seasonal increases in transportation fuels such as gasoline and jet fuel during the summer months.
After talks between the U.S. and Iran failed, President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which raises the pressure on Iran by trying to prevent it from making money by selling oil.
A blockade would keep even more oil off the global market, after prices already jumped for everyone worldwide because of Iran's restrictions on traffic in the important strait. The narrow waterway is how much of the oil produced in the Persian Gulf area reaches customers worldwide.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Solange Reyner ✉
Solange Reyner is a writer and editor for Newsmax. She has more than 15 years in the journalism industry reporting and covering news, sports and politics.
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