Many analysts are turning bullish on the economy after GDP grew an average of 4.8 percent in the second and third quarters. They may have good reason, says Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson.
"If upbeat economic forecasts come true, this could be the first year that feels like a recovery. There would be huge implications,"
he writes.
Many analysts expect the economy to expand about 3 percent this year. Growth has averaged only about 2.2 percent since the recession ended in December 2009.
To be sure, a stronger economy is no slam dunk, Samuelson says.
"Some threats to the consensus optimism are plain," he writes, noting that economist David Levy of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center sees a 65 percent chance that slumps in Europe, Japan, China and emerging market countries spark a global recession that hurts the U.S. economy.
"The Federal Reserve also poses a danger. It might miscalculate on interest rates," Samuelson says. The Fed is expected to begin raising rates around mid-year.
Meanwhile, Alan Greenspan offered a mixed assessment of the U.S. economy last week, and Robert Wiedemer, co-author of "Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown,"
told Newsmax TV that the former Fed chairman got it just about right.
Greenspan told Bloomberg, "The United States is doing better than anybody else, but we’re still not doing all that well. We still have a very sluggish economy."
Wiedemer's reaction: "I agree that we are probably the best in the world, but it's definitely sluggish," he told Newsmax TV's "America's Forum" show.
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