In the lead-up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, national polls consistently showed Hillary Clinton leading President Donald Trump by approximately 4 or more percentage points. Despite this lead, the election outcome revealed the complexity of the U.S. electoral system, where the national popular vote does not directly determine the winner.

Clinton garnered 65,853,514 votes to Trump's 62,984,828, a difference of roughly 4.45%. However, Trump won the Electoral College in a landslide with over 30 States and over 300 Electoral Votes, highlighting the crucial role of battleground states. In spite of the New York Times implying for months that Trump had no chance of winning, President Trump won big and many have never trusted the old New York media since.

Understanding Polling Dynamics

Polls are snapshots of public opinion at a given time and are influenced by various factors, including current events, media coverage, and public perceptions of the candidates. In 2016, while Clinton's national lead appeared evident, but her support was weak in key battleground and rust-belt states, which ultimately determined the election's outcome. This underscores the necessity for East and West Coast candidates to focus on these critical Heartland states, where small margins can lead to significant shifts in the Electoral College.

Current Polling Trends: Harris vs. Trump

Fast forward to the present (July 27, 2024) , and we see a different dynamic. Current polls show Democrats slightly trailing Donald Trump, with Trump leading by an average of 1.7%.

Let's delve into the recent polling data to understand the current landscape: Keep in mind that these 15 polls have been produced both before and after President Biden dropped out of the race.

1. Wall Street Journal (7/23 - 7/25, 1000 RV, Margin of Error: 3.1%): Trump 49%, Harris 47% (Trump +2)
2. Forbes/HarrisX (7/22 - 7/25, 3013 RV, Margin of Error: 1.8%): Trump 51%, Harris 49% (Trump +2)
3. NY Times/Siena (7/22 - 7/24, 1142 LV): Trump 48%, Harris 47% (Trump +1)
4. Rasmussen Reports (7/22 - 7/24, 1074 LV, Margin of Error: 3.0%): Trump 50%, Harris 43% (Trump +7)
5. Morning Consult (7/22 - 7/24, 11297 RV, Margin of Error: 1.0%): Harris 46%, Trump 45% (Harris +1)
6. CNN (7/22 - 7/23, 1631 RV, Margin of Error: 3.0%): Trump 49%, Harris 46% (Trump +3)
7. Reuters/Ipsos (7/22 - 7/23, 1018 RV, Margin of Error: 3.0%): Harris 44%, Trump 42% (Harris +2)
8. NPR/PBS/Marist (7/22 - 7/22, 1117 RV, Margin of Error: 3.5%): Trump 46%, Harris 45% (Trump +1)
9. Quinnipiac (7/19 - 7/21, 1257 RV, Margin of Error: 2.8%): Trump 49%, Harris 47% (Trump +2)
10. Yahoo News (7/19 - 7/22, 1178 RV): Harris 46%, Trump 46% (Tie)
11. CBS News (7/16 - 7/18, 2247 LV, Margin of Error: 2.7%): Trump 51%, Harris 48% (Trump +3)
12. FOX News (7/7 - 7/10, 1210 RV, Margin of Error: 3.0%): Trump 49%, Harris 48% (Trump +1)
13. NBC News (7/7 - 7/9, 800 RV, Margin of Error: 3.5%): Trump 47%, Harris 45% (Trump +2)
14. Emerson (7/7 - 7/8, 1370 RV, Margin of Error: 2.6%): Trump 49%, Harris 43% (Trump +6)
15. ABC News/Wash Post (7/5 - 7/9, 2041 RV, Margin of Error: 2.0%): Harris 49%, Trump 47% (Harris +2)

Interpreting the Data

The data reveals a competitive national polling race, with Trump leading in most polls with strong margins. Notably, Harris shows strength in some polls, even leading in the Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos polls. This indicates a deceiving national polling system where public opinion in battleground states reigns supreme over national polls.

Strategic Implications for Candidates

The 2016 election serves as a poignant reminder of the importance of battleground states. For Kamala Harris to secure a victory, surpassing Trump by more than 4 points in national polls would be essential, but focusing on swing states is crucial as Harris needs to move up 4 to 6 points in national polls to be competitive.

Conclusion

For Vice President Kamala Harris to achieve any success in the upcoming election, she must navigate a landscape marked by significant challenges that have emerged over the past four years. The nation has grappled with rising crime rates, persistent inflation, high interest rates, loss of jobs due to immigration, international conflicts, and concerns over the weakening of crucial social safety nets like Social Security and Medicare.

Polling data provides valuable insights into the current state of the race, but it is not a definitive predictor of the outcome. Candidates must strategize effectively, concentrating efforts on battleground votes while maintaining a strong national presence. The lessons from 2016 emphasize that in the complex landscape of U.S. presidential elections, both national and state-level dynamics are critical to achieving victory. As the race progresses, staying attuned to these dynamics will be essential for both candidates and their campaigns.

In July 2020, The Wall Street Journal national polling had President Trump down by 9 points, and had Biden leading President Trump in August by 11 points. Thus, in 2024, Donald Trump is in a far better polling position in the 2024 election when you compare it to a similar time in the 2020 election.

As with demographics, a Harris nomination at the convention may energize the Black Vote, but many have already seen what the policies of Harris would do to the black community with immigration, job losses, and inflation. Further, a Harris nomination may also swing more Hispanic votes to Trump. Overall, the 2022 mid-terms did not prove much, but those elections did show clear shifts of Hispanics and minorities toward republicans.

As with 2020 and 2016, if a republican wins a state like PA, WI, MI, AZ, MN, NV, or even NM, it can throw the election regardless of the millions of votes you received in California or New York.

As a note, Arizona: With its 11 electoral votes, Michigan: With 16 electoral votes, Wisconsin: With 10 electoral votes,  Nevada with 6 electoral votes; and Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes are all essential for securing a victory.

Remember, many conservatives don’t even bother to vote in New York, California, Illinois or Massachusetts; however, this may help a republicans win a few extra Congressional races in NY and CA because many Democrats are so angry about the economy and offshore wars that they are willing to vote for any peace and prosperity candidate over the same old bureaucrat.

Overall, we will wait and see if the Democratic Convention can have a positive impact on the American voters who are suffering a four-year-long beating from a poor economy, high crime, and high inflation.

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Commissioner George Mentz JD MBA CILS CWM® is the first in the USA to rank as a Top 50 Influencer & Thought Leader in: Management, PM, HR, FinTech, Wealth Management, and B2B according to Onalytica.com and Thinkers360.com. George Mentz JD MBA CILS is a CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ®, global speaker - educator, tax-economist, international lawyer and CEO of the GAFM Global Academy of Finance & Management ®. The GAFM is a EU accredited graduate body that trains and certifies professionals in 150+ nations under standards of the: US Dept of Education, ACBSP, ISO 21001, ISO 991, ISO 29993, QAHE, ECLBS, and ISO 29990 standards. Mentz is also an award winning author and award winning graduate law professor of wealth management of one of the top 30 ranked law schools in the USA.