The commodities super cycle of 2000-08 is obviously over, and the last year has been particularly cruel to the asset class, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index plunging 19.3 percent.
But that doesn't mean you should give up on the idea of devoting a small portion of your investment portfolio to commodities as a means of diversification, many investment experts say.
"It’s generally worth sticking with it," Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, told The Wall Street Journal. A commodities allocation of 3 to 5 percent would represent a modest commitment for investors, he said.
If you compare potential returns on commodities to yields on investment-grade bonds, "the opportunity cost of a small [commodities] allocation is modest at this time," Haworth said.
The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index has a yield of 2.98 percent.
Geopolitical turmoil, such as conflicts in the Ukraine and Middle East, could easily push commodity prices higher, as could interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, some experts say.
Oil, of course, is the commodity now drawing the most intense focus. It has rebounded sharply after hitting a 5 ½-year low at the end of January. But John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital, doesn't think the rally will last.
"I still believe we're going to go to that $30 to $33 area, which is the low point from the financial crisis in 2008, 2009," he told CNBC. U.S. crude traded at $52.86 a barrel Monday morning.
"What you saw over the past several days was technical in nature, a short squeeze. This volatility is a little crazy, and I think that $30 is a downside target for technicians that are in this market."
The recent shutdown of oil rigs just represents a jettison of "the runts of the litter," Kilduff said.
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