The world's top energy and financial institutions have warned that a growing wave of national oil stockpiling is deepening the price shock from the war in Iran, with Brent crude jumping back above $101 a barrel Wednesday as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed.
Heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank Group said several governments are holding supplies off the market and imposing export restrictions that risk worsening what they describe as the biggest shock ever to global energy markets.
The warning was issued April 13 at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where the three agencies' leaders met as a coordination group established earlier in the month.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told reporters after that meeting that several countries were keeping stocks off the market and capping exports, but declined to name them.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged governments to "do no harm," saying restrictions were "only making the disequilibrium worse."
The three institutions' joint statement cited supply disruptions, shortages of key inputs and high fuel and fertilizer prices as risks that may persist even after shipping resumes.
The operative concern is a feedback loop.
When importing countries pull barrels off the market to protect domestic supply, global inventories tighten faster than the IEA's coordinated 400 million-barrel emergency release can offset, pushing prices higher and prompting more governments to do the same.
Birol has said the release represents roughly 20% of member reserves, leaving room for further action if conditions deteriorate.
The underlying shock is severe.
The IEA's April oil market report said global supply fell by 10.1 million barrels a day in March, the largest disruption in the history of the oil market, after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 triggered the conflict.
Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about a fifth of world oil trade, averaged roughly 3.8 million barrels a day in early April, down from more than 20 million in February.
Brent has swung hard on each turn in the conflict.
Prices fell more than 10% on April 17 after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared the strait fully open, then surged again after the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman and Tehran reasserted control over the waterway.
President Donald Trump extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire Tuesday, telling CNBC that "we're not going to open the strait until we have a final deal," while keeping the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iranian ports in place. Araghchi called the blockade an act of war and a violation of the truce, and Tehran refused to attend a second round of talks in Pakistan this week.
The next test is whether the joint IEA-IMF-World Bank appeal slows the drift toward national stockpiling before a second coordinated reserve release is needed.
Birol said the agency is "ready to act immediately" if conditions warrant.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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