The soaring dollar — it has hit multi-year highs against a range of currencies in recent weeks — isn't good for U.S. companies with operations overseas, or even ones that just export.
A rising dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive in foreign currencies, and it makes revenue earned overseas worth less when converted into dollars.
A "strong dollar is negative for any company with significant overseas business," James Kelleher, director of research at Argus, told
CNBC.
In the 10 periods since Jan. 1, 2005, when the dollar climbed 5 percent or more during 60 trading days, technology stocks were among those that fared worst during the next three months.
Hewlett-Packard fell 70 percent of the time during that period and sported a negative median return of 4.5 percent. Intel also dropped 70 percent of the time and had a negative median return of 3 percent. Adobe slid 60 percent of the time and had a negative median return of 5.2 percent.
"Companies like IBM and HP can't totally avoid a currency headwind at the cost of being a global company," Kelleher said.
The impact of the strong dollar on earnings is particularly harsh now, because many companies already are suffering from tepid global sales, Steven Winoker, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein, told
The Wall Street Journal.
"If this were affecting 7 percent or 9 percent growth, we would not be so concerned," he said. "But with most companies at low/mid-single-digit underlying growth rates, this headwind becomes material."
He estimates the dollar's strength will cut revenue growth for industrial and electrical equipment companies by 2.6 percentage points or more this year.
Johnson & Johnson reported Tuesday that the rising dollar took 4.5 percentage points off its revenues for the fourth quarter, leading them to dip 0.6 percent for the period.
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