The race to zero percent government bond yields in the world's major economies is over — the level has been breached — and now the trend is hurtling toward negative percent yields, according to Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners.
The real danger is the deflation that lurks beyond the plummet in rates spawned by central banks, he wrote in a
blog on his firm's website. At least 14 major nations saw their 10-year bond yields hit historic lows in the first week of the new year.
"The bond market continues to make history as global deflationary pressures and record central bank easing are driving yields to unfathomable levels," he wrote on the portfolio management firm's blog.
Bilello noted that in recent days, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to an all-time low yield of 2.50 percent, the German 1-year yield touched a new all-time low of 0.44 percent and the Swiss 10-year yield was the lowest in the developed world at 0.21 percent.
"German Bunds now show a negative interest rate from one month through five years. That's not a mistake: five years. In buying these bunds, you are locking your money up for five years and accepting a negative return for it," he said.
Bilello said German government bond yields this week ranged from -0.91 percent for 1-year bonds up to -0.66 percent for 4-year bonds.
"Most pundits have cheered this sharp move lower in yields but is it really is good thing? Only if you believe that lower growth and plummeting inflation expectations are a positive."
Bilello suggested financial markets are laboring under the delusion that negative economic growth is a positive because it means more stimulus from central banks to prop up stock prices.
"Only when faith in these policies inevitably fades and stocks start going down will the narrative change," he noted.
"For only then will policymakers stop focusing on boosting short-term asset prices and start focusing on the structural changes necessary to improve long-term growth.
The bond market is indeed "flashing a warning sign right now," says
New York Times columnist Peter Eavis.
"The rally in global government debt is pushing their yields, which move in the opposite direction from their price, to astonishing lows," he wrote.
"In other words, the bond market is raising the specter that a period of economic growth that may have already felt lackluster to many Americans could be on the verge of losing steam."
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