Because of strong anti-American feelings in Pakistan, it is practically impossible to use Pakistan as a bridgehead for a mini-war against terrorists. However, sources in Tashkent report that after President Bush's telephone call to Uzbekistani President Islam Karimov on Sept. 19, the Pentagon and Uzbekistan Defense Ministry began to jointly draw up plans for air strikes on the al-Qaeda camps. As a result, Uzbekistan has become a major U.S. bridgehead for the war in Afghanistan.
Remarkably, Uzbekistan did not send its representative to a meeting of the Council of Independent States (CIS) Chiefs of General Staff in Moscow on Sept. 26. Among 12 republics of the former Soviet Union, only Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan chose not to participate in the meeting. Evidently, Tashkent was afraid of possible leaks of U.S.-Uzbekistani military secrets at this meeting.
All Uzbekistani air defense troops on airbases where the U.S. Air Force can be sent are now on full combat alert. These airbases include Tuzel in Tashkent, Kokaida (about 12 miles north of Termez on the Afghan border), Chirchik (12 miles west of Tashkent) and Kagana (near Bukhara).
Some time ago Karimov said that he didn't like the agreement signed by Moscow and Tajikistan in 1999 on establishing a Russian military base in his country for 20 years. Uzbekistan installed barbed wire fences on the borders with the neighboring Central Asian republics of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. This greatly displeased those nations as well as the entire world community (especially Russia).
In addition, Uzbekistan is not participating in anti-terrorist training maneuvers on CIS territory, or in the Pact of Collective Security of CIS. At the same time Tashkent intends to take part in the similar Pact of Collective Security of the GUUAM countries. GUUAM is short for Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova; it is a pro-Western and moderately anti-Moscow group of former Soviet republics established with U.S. aid in 1997-99. In 1999-2001 Russian President Putin did his best to eliminate GUUAM.
Clearly the rapproachment of Uzbekistan and the U.S. can change the geopolitical situation in Central Asian, and directly affects the interests of Russia. It is symptomatic that the Kremlin is evading giving military-technological support to Uzbeki Gen. Rashid Dustum's offensive on the Taliban positions. Sources in Tajikistan claim that Gen. Dustum (reportedly married to Karimov's daughter) had to buy weapons from the Taliban with money obtained from the U.S. via Tashkent. The U.S. is definitely interested in the victory of pro-Tashkent forces in Afghanistan.
Trustworthy sources say that Uzbekistan is now preparing to offer the U.S. not only air space corridors but also its military infrastructure. Special Pentagon and CIA units are already in this country. U.S. radio-reconnaissance units are using their helicopters (located in Uzbekistan) to intercept Taliban communications. These U.S. helicopters move along the Amu-Darya River (on the Afghan border) and thrust into Afghan territory. American commandos at the Uzbek airbase near Karshi are preparing to launch ground operations against terrorist camps in Afghanistan.
Kremlin sources say that the Russian government expressed strong displeasure about the vigorous activities of some former Soviet republics (i.e. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) in their contacts with the U.S., but Russia cannot prevent them.
Tashkent sources claim that Uzbekistan and the U.S. reached agreement on U.S. purchases of Uzbekistani fuel, including aviation kerosene. During the past decade, Uzbekistan has developed new deposits of oil and built a major oil refining plant, so the nation is now fully independent from the energy resources of Russia and Kazakhstan.
The post-Afghan-war redistribution of spheres of influence in Central Asia, and especially the expansion of U.S. influence in Central Asia, frighten Moscow. That's why Moscow is sparing no effort to upgrade strategic ties with Iran and Tajikistan. The visit of Iranian Defense Minister Shamkhani to Moscow (Oct. 1-4, 2001) is noteworthy here.
After meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, Uzbekistani President Islam Karimov denied reports that U.S. special forces units are located on his nation's territory or that they would strike against the Taliban Uzbekistani bases.
Still, there are reasons to believe that U.S. and Uzbekistani special forces are preparing for ground operations in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan is very strongly interested in controlling the relatively industrialized northern provinces of Afghanistan, where Gen. Dustum is now actively fighting the Taliban. However his victory would be unlikely without serious military help from outside (i.e. Uzbekistan).
China is also worried about the growing U.S. presence in its backyard.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed additional troops in Xinjiang Province, bordering on Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics. Deputy Chief of PLA General Staff Lt. Gen. Xiong Guangkai – the same person who in early 1996 threatened a nuclear strike against Los Angeles, if the U.S. helps Taiwan during a Taiwan Strait conflict – recently visited Xinjiang to accelerate this effort.
The PLA has deployed an additional 10 divisions, including 100,000 well-equipped troops, in Xinjiang. These divisions come from other regions of China. The relocation is directly related to growing tensions in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia.
As a result of all of this, China and Russia have strengthened their ties, and have made it plain they want the U.S. out of the area as soon as possible. Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Russian President Vladimir Putin agree that the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan should end as soon as possible, Chinese and Russian officials said after the pair met in Shanghai.
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov stated that the two leaders, who met ahead of the formal start of the APEC Summit, agreed that the U.N. should be in charge of ''political coordination'' of a post-Taliban government in Afghanistan. Jiang and Putin said they would strengthen the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In what Jiang called a "far-sighted" pact, the six nations agreed in June to combat separatism, terrorism and religious extremism in Central Asia, mainly targeting Muslim extremists in Chechnya, Afghanistan and China's far western Xinjiang Province.
More than 1,000 U.S. troops stationed in southern Uzbekistan are waiting to move into Afghanistan, once the Northern Alliance troops capture the stronghold of Mazar-e-Sharif, 30 miles south of the Uzbekistani border, a source in the U.S. Embassy in Tashkent said. Once the Northern Alliance – generally recognized as the legitimate government in Afghanistan despite the fact that the Taliban controls over 90 percent of the country – takes the town, U.S. forces which have been in Uzbekistan for more than two weeks would have a risk-free route into Afghanistan.
Kazakhstani President Nazarbayev said Kazakhstan firmly supported U.S. strikes on Afghanistan in retaliation for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. cities. Earlier in the year, Nazarbayev, who provided U.S. military aircraft with air corridors in southern Kazakhstan, set up a special military district in his nation's south and relocated a brigade of jet fighters to help cover the southern flank of the vast but sparsely populated country.
The development of friendly relations between Russia and China, and their armed forces, corresponds to the crucial interests of the peoples of the two countries, the chief of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, Anatoliy Kvashnin, told his Chinese counterpart, Fu Quanyou, on Oct. 21. Kvashnin lauded China's success in military modernization. Fu Quanyou informed Kvashnin on the fundamentals of his national defense policy and said that the Chinese armed forces attributed great significance to cooperation with Russian troops. Lt. Gen. Xiong Guangkai, deputy chief of general staff of the PLA and other officials were present at the meeting.
Gen. Kvashnin accompanied Putin to the APEC summit in Shanghai on Oct. 20-21, after which he paid an official visit to China. In Beijing Kvashnin also conducted talks with Defense Minister Gen. Chi Haotian and was received by Central Military Commission Vice Chairmen Hu Jintao (China's vice president, and Jiang's official successor) and Lt. Gen. Zhang Wannian.
In particular, Hu met with Gen. Kvashnin on Oct. 22 in the Great Hall of the People. The negotiations between Hu and Kvashnin are of especial significance. Kvashnin thanked Hu for the meeting and said: "China is a great country, and the Chinese army is a great army. My visit to China has been very fruitful." The two sides fully exchanged views on issues of common concern. Also present at the meeting were Gens. Fu Quanyou and Xiong Guangkai, CGS and Deputy CGS, respectively, and Rogachev, Russian ambassador to China.
The situation is becoming ever more tense. According to the Oct. 29 issue of Time magazine, "China's government is growing very worried" about the U.S. military presence on China's borders, says Chu Shulong, an expert on Sino-U.S. relations at Beijing's Qinghua University. Comment: The same holds for the Kremlin's attitude.
China and Russia are really afraid of the spreading U.S. influence in Afghanistan and especially in the Central Asian republics of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, once considered the "unshared Sino-Russian domain." China is particularly interested in control over the huge oil and gas resources and already invested handsomely in 1997-2000. In response, China and Russia, are upgrading their strategic-military and defense technology cooperation. Simultaneously, China is building up troops in Xinjiang. According to available data, Russia is adding several thousand troops to its 201st Division, in Tajikistan.
A major military escalation in Central Asia, during a later stage of the U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan, cannot be excluded.