U.S. equities haven’t bottomed out yet, because they do not reflect the latest rise in Treasury yields and the increasing odds of a recession, according to Goldman Sachs strategists.
“U.S. equity valuations do not yet offer a historically large premium to the real returns on offer from bonds and cash,” wrote Kamakshya Trivedi and other Goldman analysts in a client note dated October 25.
The markets could face “significant downside if a proper recession occurs or geopolitical risks in Ukraine or elsewhere intensify,” they maintain.
By comparison, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase market experts believe a recession is already priced into the markets, Bloomberg reports.
The Goldman team believes the S&P 500 Index, trading at 3,847 on Oct. 26, could drop by as much as 25%, to 2,888.
The bearish Goldman caution comes at a time when many traders are looking for a floor in the market, with bullish bond traders hedging for lower yields and a less aggressive Federal Reserve, as they build up long positions in Treasuries.
A Bloomberg survey of Wall Street economists finds 60% expect a recession in the next 12 months, up from 50% a month ago. However, Bloomberg economist Eliza Winger says there is a 100% probability the U.S. will fall into a recession in the coming year.
Trivedi and her colleagues say that if a U.S. recession does occur, it will put further pressure on equities.