Donald Trump celebrated wins in Michigan, Mississippi, and Hawaii on Tuesday night, further solidifying his path to the Republican nomination.
"The turnout has been just massive for every week," Trump said from his golf club in Jupiter, Florida, The Washington Post reported
Gathered below are eight reasons the real estate mogul is all but assured to clinch the Republican nomination and won't likely be stopped by his rivals.
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1. A head-to-head contest isn't emerging
— As Commentary magazine pointed out
on Wednesday, "Though polls continue to show him losing in head-to-head matchups against both Cruz and Rubio, there doesn’t appear to be a path for either of them to get to that point." Even if Rubio loses Florida and drops out, Kasich is poised to win Ohio, which will prompt him to stay in the race until the convention.
2. Cruz has exhausted his best states
— "Ted Cruz is going to have a hard time when he gets to certain states, he's going to have a hard time," Trump said on Tuesday night after notching projected victories in Michigan and Mississippi. According to The New York Times
, Cruz, the candidate that stands the best chance of stopping Trump, "faces an uphill battle in April and May" as the election map moves away from conservative red states that favor Cruz, and shift toward more moderate and blue states that favor Trump.
3. Rubio unlikely to win Florida
— The most reliable polling analyses from outfits like FiveThirtyEight
and Real Clear Politics predict that Trump, not Rubio, will win the 99-delegate, winner-take-all primary in Florida on March 15. In fact, he leads by double-digit margins in polling averages. While Florida is Rubio's home state, Trump has long called the Sunshine State his second home, and he has a number of Trump-branded properties there. That said, it's easy to see Trump carrying the state, and effectively snuffing out the Rubio campaign.
4. "Parasitic" Kasich will likely win Ohio
— Like Jeb Bush and other establishment candidates, the "parasitic" campaign of the Ohio governor has continued to suck votes away from Marco Rubio, likely costing him "up to 91 delegates" according to an analysis from FiveThirtyEight
. For Rubio, "nothing has cost him so dearly to date, apart from perhaps his New Hampshire debate gaffe, as the lingering candidacy of John Kasich." Polling indicates that Kasich is likely to win in Ohio, taking all 66 delegates, an event that will likely prompt him to stay in the race and prevent it from becoming a head-to-head contest against Trump.
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5. The #NeverTrump movement isn't working
— "Trump's victories on Tuesday," Real Clear Politics reported
, "come after party leaders and activists banded together against him, forming the so-called 'Never Trump' coalition. Former GOP standard-bearer Mitt Romney urged Republicans to vote against him in the upcoming primaries, and voiced robo-calls for Kasich, Cruz, and Rubio. Anti-Trump super PACs spent roughly $13 million against him, according to one report. And at the GOP debate in Detroit Thursday night, Rubio and Cruz sought to bring Trump down. Trump saw Tuesday night as a resounding rejection of the effort."
6. The GOP establishment doesn't like Cruz
— As Politico reported
on Wednesday, "some top Republican power brokers are turning to Cruz, putting aside their policy and personal misgivings to back the candidate they now openly label as their best hope to stop Trump’s GOP takeover." While some are warming to Cruz, "other influential Republicans intend to remain on the sidelines, with no appetite for backing either Cruz or Trump." Establishmentarians are unlikely to coalesce around Cruz, the most likely candidate to beat Trump. If they do, it will likely be too late in the race to make a difference.
7. Trump has won a diverse set of states
— On Tuesday, Trump won Michigan in the Midwest, Mississippi in the South, and Hawaii in the mid-Pacific. The impressive showing was a good example of Trump's ability to win states regardless of region. To date, he's won states
from New Hampshire to Nevada to Alabama.
8. Trump wins over many voter groups, including independents
— "Two different races took shape in the Michigan and Mississippi Republican primaries," ABC News reported
. "In Mississippi, nearly all voters were evangelicals and mainline Republicans, with a high number of strong conservatives. In Michigan, by contrast, far fewer were in either of those groups, and there are notably more political independents voting."
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