Labor Unions Losing Political Clout

The catalyst that gave the unions their start to real political power was a mild recession that began in 1957 while President Eisenhower was in the sixth year of his eight-year presidency.

Voters do tend to punish the party in power. (In the 20th century, only one time did a party in power actually gain seats in the sixth year of their presidency. That one time was in 1998 when Bill Clinton, hoping to avoid impeachment, riled up his base to such an extent that Democrats actually gained five seats in the House. Even FDR saw his huge majorities in the Congress substantially reduced in 1938.)

The recession of '57 gave unions the foothold they needed to launch themselves into power. In 1958 the unions began charging union members big-time money for political action. They formed a political action committee known as COPE and hired a director who understood how to play political hardball. COPE began recruiting candidates all over the nation and then they went into primaries and defeated Democrat candidates who were not beholden to the unions.

For the first time, they held training schools and set up an extensive field operation. It was so costly and so extensive that some in the union movement were afraid it could be a debacle.

The unions that year also went after "right to work" initiatives in states all over the nation. They won everywhere. In fact, one of the few Republicans they didn't defeat was Barry Goldwater, running for a second term in Arizona. Otherwise, the unions gained such strength in Congress that they were able to pass their initiatives or at least stop legislation they didn't like.

Union ranks were further strengthened in 1964 when Republicans suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Senator Goldwater. Beginning in 1966 Republicans slowly made gains only to have them wiped out in 1974 in the aftermath of Watergate.

Even when Republicans took control of the Senate for six years in 1980, the unions prevailed in the House. Moreover, when Republicans took control of the House as well in 1994, there were enough pro-union Republicans to block legislation the unions didn't like.

Well, several things have happened in recent times to reverse some union control. In 2002 the unions announced that they were increasing the assessments for politics. They wanted to raise big bucks so the Republicans could be defeated. A funny thing happened. Republicans reversed history. They picked up six seats in the House and won back control of the U.S. Senate that they had lost when Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont switched sides.

And now the Iowa caucuses. The union candidates came in third and fourth. The argument has been advanced that if the unions had been "united" this would not have happened. Industrial unions supported Congressman Dick Gephardt. The government and remaining unions supported Howard Dean.

Sorry, that won't work. The combined total of both unions was still several points short of second-place finisher Sen. John Edwards ... and about 10 points behind first-place finisher Sen. John Kerry. So much for the power of the unions.

In fact, if you combine both the Dean and Gephardt votes and put them up against the Edwards and Kerry votes, the non-union candidates in the DEMOCRAT primary got 70 percent of the vote and the union candidates got less than 30 percent. In the Republican caucuses, where President Bush was running unopposed, of course, the union influence was 0 percent.

The Labor Department has just announced that union membership of the total workforce has dropped to an all-time low. Part of this is because of the loss of industrial jobs, but even the government unions have lost membership, mainly because of state budget cuts. Union membership is a little under 13 percent of the workforce.

The unions are making big noises about exercising political clout in this year's election. True, if they can help defeat President Bush they will be back in the driver's seat even if they did not endorse the winner in Iowa. Whoever gets the Democrat nomination for president will be linking up with big labor immediately.

Unions also are talking about flexing their muscles in the Congress. However, the Supreme Court just allowed Texas to go ahead with its redistricting plan, and as a result it is likely that Republicans will add seats in the House.

As far as the Senate is concerned, Republicans have one really vulnerable seat in Illinois. Alaska and Oklahoma are also potential problems. But there are five open Democrat seats in the South. Republicans have a shot in all five, and a "better than even" shot in three.

Then there are serious challenges against incumbents in South Dakota, Washington state and even California. A serious challenger might also emerge in Nevada. Republicans might well win at least one of these incumbent seats.

Democrats currently have 49 seats in the Senate. If Democrats can hold on to what they have, and win in Illinois and Alaska or Oklahoma, they will end up back in control. If that happens, the unions are also "back in the saddle" regardless of what happens at the presidential level.

Unless unions do get themselves a president or a senate majority leader, they are not apt to be able to credibly threaten the American political scene anytime soon. We may well have seen in Iowa the end of a political era that has lasted over 45 years. With all of the legislation dealing with liability caps on the table, it could not happen a moment too soon.

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