Despite the amount of noise in this year's presidential election, things have remained pretty stable through the lens of the Electoral College.
"My general view, at least up until this point, is that the map is pretty stable, compared to 2012," explained Josh Putnam, political science professor at the University of Georgia and expert on the Electoral College and delegates at Frontloading HQ.
"That may change in the next six weeks; but right now we're talking about the Democratic nominee Clinton being well-positioned to flip North Carolina and Trump, the Republican nominee to do the same with Iowa and Nevada," he said.
That amounts to a shift of just three electoral votes toward the Democrats. That looks a lot more like 2000 to 2004 or 2008 to 2012 changes -- two incumbent elections -- instead of the open seat election this is at the presidential level.
None of that is set in stone, but the group of seven states that are closest -- at least under Putnam's formula (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio) -- are not states that Clinton would technically need to get to 270 electoral votes.
She is currently ahead by five or more points in enough states to get to 273 without any of them.
Trump almost has to have those seven or find a way to crack into electoral vote-rich states where Clinton's leads have proven durable.
"Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia get mentioned most often in this group, but Maine and Michigan have seen their margins shrink at faster rates over the last few weeks," he explained.
The main thing Putnam is looking at right now is how volatile the polling is at the state level.
"There are states where Trump is on a bit of a tear," he said, namely where he has a streak of consecutive leads in the polls: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa and Nevada.
But then another group where the polling has bounced around some within a defined range; North Carolina and Ohio fit this category.
Both still favor Clinton but the averages have waned as recent polling has ranged from tied (and maybe +1 Clinton) to +3-4 for Trump. Florida, too, roughly fits this category, but with a range more favorable to Clinton.
"Instead of the good side -- from the Clinton campaign perspective -- being +1 Clinton, it is +3-4 Clinton; all while the other end is +3 to 4 Trump," he said.
That has made Florida more durable for Clinton. The remaining Lean Clinton states Putnam mentioned above have all seen their margins decrease, but the ranges are almost all on Clinton's side.
In short, they are still reaches for Trump.
But as an indication of how close all of this is -- or maybe how much the Electoral College's winner-take-all formula can amplify results -- FHQ has Clinton with 335 electoral votes right now.
"But, for the most part, all that separates the two is about two points across all states," he said.
That kind of shift would help Trump, but he'd likely need it to be closer to five points overall to bring enough states/electoral votes into play.
FiveThirtyEight, the one-stop-shop for daily electoral shifts, has Clinton with a more modest 272 electoral votes, just the right amount to win the election on Nov. 8 with just two more than she would need.
But if this race tightens further, the thing that hurts Clinton the most is demographics; in short the rising American electorate of blacks and Hispanics do not live in the states she needs to win electorally.
"Several of Trump's worst demographic groups happen to be concentrated in states, such as California, New York, Texas and Utah, that are either not competitive or that aren't on Trump's must-win list," writes Dave Wasserman at FiveThirtyEight.
Wasserman, a political numbers cruncher at The Cook Report adds, "Conversely, whites without a college degree — one of Trump's strongest groups — represent a huge bloc in three blue states he would need to turn red to have the best chance of winning 270 electoral votes: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania."
While neither man sees a redux of the 2000 presidential electoral hair split between Al Gore and George W. Bush – FiveThirtyEight polls only model speculates Trump has a 6.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College while losing the popular, and a 1.5 chance of the reverse outcome.
Salena Zito covers national politics for Newsmax.
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