More Republican voters have turned out for Virginia's special election on redistricting than they did for the 2025 gubernatorial race, according to the election forecaster State Navigate.

More than 1.37 million voters cast ballots between March 6 and April 18 ahead of the April 21 election, compared with 1.42 million for the governor's race, which Democrat Abigail Spanberger won.

Forty-two percent of the 2026 figure was Republican, compared with 41% in 2025.

The 2025 governor's race saw the highest nonpresidential voter turnout in state history.

The measure would redraw the state's 11 congressional districts to give Democrats an advantage this fall.

Virginia's U.S. House delegation consists of six Democrats and five Republicans.

But maps proposed by Virginia Democrats who crafted the referendum would temporarily create 10 districts that backed Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election and one that backed President Donald Trump.

The measure would allow the state's independent redistricting process to resume as scheduled in 2030.

"Yes has a slight edge in the polls and a much bigger $ edge," Decision Desk said on X.

"But No has a real shot at winning as the early vote is less pro-Democratic than it was last November."

State Navigate's election forecast projects early voting at roughly 554,851 Republican ballots versus about 802,740 Democratic ballots.

Last year, Trump encouraged Republican-led states to redraw their congressional maps to help the GOP preserve its narrow House majority in the midterm elections.

His call for mid-decade redistricting prompted states such as Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Utah to approve new maps, which together could add as many as nine Republican seats.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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