Mitt Romney took his first lead in electoral college predictions this week according to
Real Clear Politics, with a 206 to 201 advantage and 151 electoral votes left as toss-ups.
As polls have tightened since the first debate between Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama, analysts have altered their estimates and predictions to match who Americans say they plan to vote for.
RCP averages several state polls and, depending on the size of a candidate’s lead and changes in poll numbers over time, determines which states appear to be likely wins or are leaning that way for a candidate.
Of states polling solidly for one candidate or the other, RCP gives 13 to Romney, totalling 76 electoral votes, and 10 go to Obama, with a total of 142 votes.
The toss-up states, RCP said, are: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.
Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado, and Florida, states which Obama won in 2008, all appear to lean statistically toward Romney, according to RCP poll averages. In the case of Indiana, the former Massacusetts governor’s 12-point polling lead has the state included in his win column.
The poll averages show that at this point in the race, Obama has not yet gained any states which Sen. John McCain won in the last presidential election.
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