Despite a poor debate performance and the subsequent tightening of the race, Americans still believe that President Barack Obama will be re-elected and polls show they generally get it right.
In interviews conducted from Oct. 27-28 as part of the
Gallup Daily election tracking survey, Americans by a margin of 54 to 34 percent believe Obama will defeat GOP challengers Mitt Romney. The numbers are little different from Gallup surveys in May and August.
Gallup noted that the surveys were conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast and that it is uncertain what, if any effect, that may have on voter views. However, the president’s response to the storm has earned praise even from Republicans.
“The majority of Americans continue to project an Obama win on Nov. 6,” Gallup wrote. “This is the case even though the general perception is the race is highly competitive and the outcome still very much in doubt. National polls generally show a tight race with many, including Gallup, giving Romney an edge. State-level polls suggest Obama doing slightly better in key battleground states that will decide the Electoral College winner.”
Gallup said that Americans have a “good track record” in picking winners of the popular vote, making the correct prediction in final Gallup surveys taken in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008.”
“Though it has been a long campaign season with various twists and turns, Americans by a clear margin still predict that Obama will win re-election,” Gallup concluded. “This in the face of presidential preference polling that has consistently demonstrated a close race. The apparent inconsistency may be the result of Obama's status as the incumbent and reflects a somewhat lower level of confidence among Republicans that their candidate will win.”
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