Super-storm Sandy could push gasoline prices higher, as refineries go out of commission.
But the resumption of refinery activity should combine later with a slump in demand, as drivers stay off the streets in storm-ravaged areas, to pull gas prices back down, experts say.
Even before the storm struck in earnest Monday night, many east coast refineries slowed their activity or shut down, and storm damage could shutter them for several days.
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Meanwhile, refinery capacity has shrunk in the region and in Europe amid the industry’s difficult economics.
"We don't have the fallback we had during Hurricane Katrina," energy analyst Stephen Schork tells CNNMoney.
Some analysts say gas prices could rise to $4 nationally, a 13 percent increase from Monday’s U.S. average of $3.54.
But slack demand for gas from drivers should help to keep that move temporary. "My read is that this storm is going to be one of the biggest demand destroyers in my lifetime,” Tom Kloza, chief analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, tells CNNMoney.
Gas prices have dropped 6 percent in the last month.
"I wouldn't be surprised over the next day or two to see the price in some Northeastern states move a little bit higher,” AAA spokesman Avery Ash tells USA Today.
“However, these are likely to be blips. Once refineries come back online and distribution issues are worked out, we anticipate prices returning to their decline."
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