Gold prices could plummet should GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney win on Nov. 6, analysts predict.
Romney has said he opposes the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policies rolled out under current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, which have sent gold prices soaring in recent years.
The Fed recently announced plans to buy $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities held by banks every month until the economy and labor market improve, a monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing (QE).
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The announcement marks the third time the Fed has rolled out QE measures to jolt the economy under Bernanke, with the first round seeing the Fed snap up $1.7 trillion in mortgage securities and the second round seeing the Fed buy $600 billion in Treasury securities held by banks.
QE aims to stimulate the economy by injecting the financial system full of liquidity via bond purchases that push down interest rates to encourage investing and hiring.
As side effects, the dollar weakens and gold soars, though critics say inflationary pressures mount as well.
Romney has said he opposes such policies and has suggested he would support not renewing Bernanke’s term in office when it expires in January 2014, which could ring in tighter policies.
“A win by Romney is generally seen by investors as a downside risk for gold,” UBS analyst Joni Teves told the Financial Times.
“Nobody wants to do anything until the elections are out of the way.”
Even gold dealers are watching the election closely, including Tobina Kahn, vice president of House of Kahn, a Chicago-based jeweler.
“If Obama gets re-elected gold is going to go through the roof,” Kahn told the Times.
Gold prices hit an all-time high in September of 2011, topping out over $1,920 an ounce, compared with a low of around $1,309 during that same time period.
In the meantime, don’t expect monetary policy to tighten.
The Labor Department is set to release its October jobs report on Friday, and most analysts are not expecting major gains in demand for new workers, which means the Fed will continue pumping liquidity into the financial system, a recipe for higher gold prices.
“The level of unemployment is still at a level where the Fed does not feel comfortable with it,” said Peter Fertig, a consultant with Quantitative Commodity Research, according to Reuters.
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