When it comes to the all-important swing state of Ohio this election, “the momentum is clearly with Romney,” now that President Barack Obama’s 9-point lead going into the first presidential debate has vanished, pollster John Zogby tells Newsmax TV.
But it’s the independent vote that really matters in the Buckeye State, he says. When asked how important the independent vote is for Ohio, Zogby tells Newsmax: “Extremely important. For starters, Ohio does not have registration by political party. People will identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans but most voters in Ohio are independents.”
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Newsmax has teamed up with Zogby to produce multipart NewsmaxZogby online surveys, focusing on key states like Ohio.
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The joint venture will feature three-day Swing State Tracking Polls in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, and a national poll leading right up to Election Day. The NewsmaxZogby polls use key information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books, and exit polls to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed.
Zogby says the tracking is critical, especially in battleground states like Ohio. “Obama just doesn’t have wiggle room in Ohio. Ohio is very important, and it’s going to be very, very close.”
Out of the gate, “the president starts out with a solid deficit — 39 percent who rate him poorly or strongly disapprove of his job performance,” he says. “That means to be credible, he has to win over 90 percent of the rest of the voters. Right now he’s at about 47 percent overall approval, and 50 percent disapprove. But 39 percent strongly disapprove — they’re just not going to vote for him.”
Zogby says he’s seen the state go from being up for grabs to solidly in Obama’s corner to now, up for grabs again. But with the independent factor, Romney is on track to prevail. “President Obama had been leading by double digits among independents — now it is swung over in favor of Romney.”
In the latest tracking, a full 48 percent of Ohio voters say it’s time for someone else to step into the White House, a number that could spell doom for Obama.
“Frankly if an incumbent is under 45-46 percent who feel that he deserves to be re-elected, that’s normally trouble for the incumbent,” Zogby says. “When we first started in Ohio, it was 45 percent who felt that he deserved to be re-elected. Then . . . time for someone new is at 48 percent — just not good news for the president at this moment.”
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