In an early look at the 2010 Governor’s race, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Paterson 54 – 32 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released this week.
Giuliani leads 86 – 6 percent among Republicans and 60 – 21 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back Paterson 56 – 30 percent. Giuliani leads 62 – 25 percent among white voters and 51 – 42 percent among Hispanics, while black voters back Paterson 64 – 18 percent.
Cuomo leads Giuliani 47 – 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup, down from a 53 – 36 percent lead April 6. Independent voters have shifted from 49 – 38 percent for Cuomo April 8 to 44 – 40 percent for Giuliani today. In this latest survey, Giuliani leads 80 – 9 percent among Republicans while Democrats back Cuomo 78 – 16 percent. Cuomo leads 76 – 13 percent among black voters and 52 – 40 percent among Hispanics, as white voters go to Giuliani 47 – 42 percent.
“If the Republicans nominate Mayor Giuliani, he beats Paterson by a lot. Cuomo beats Giuliani but that lead is shrinking as independent voters shift to the Republican. That’s a trend to watch,” Carroll said.
New York State voters say 64 – 21 percent, including 46 – 33 percent among black voters, that Paterson does not deserve to be reelected.
A total of 33 percent of voters say it is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that Paterson will run next year for a full four-year term as Governor, while 62 percent say it is “not too likely” or “not likely at all.”
If Paterson runs, it will be bad for other Democrats running in the state, voters say 48 – 29 percent. Black voters split 40 – 39 percent on this question. "A lot of politicians think that the torrent of bad news will persuade Paterson not to run. Voters think so, too,” Carroll said. “If the Governor does what he says he will, and runs in 2010, voters think he’ll be bad news for other Democrats on the ballot.”
From May 5 – 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,828 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points. The survey includes 1,238 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.
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