Democrats now admit there’s a good chance they will lose some of their House seats in Tuesday’s elections.
When President Barack Obama was riding high in polls before the Oct. 3 presidential debate, some in the party were even talking about taking back control of the House. That would require a 25-seat net gain.
But now Democratic strategists privately acknowledge it’s 50-50 whether they gain or lose seats, The Hill
Many experts say the party was over-enthusiastic in the first place. “Democrats never really were poised to pick up a significant number of seats. Their ‘momentum’ was always more of a mirage,” David Wasserman, House editor for the Cook Political Report, told the news service.
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s improved position in the past few weeks, particularly in suburban districts, has given Republican candidates an added boost, he says.
Wasserman sees the most likely outcome as Democrats gaining between zero and five seats. And the result could range from Republicans winning five seats to Democrats winning 10.
The new district boundaries implemented for the 2012 elections created the lowest number of competitive seats in 40 years, which may mean lower turnover and fewer moderates in the House, according to a new study from the Bipartisan Policy Center.
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