The last Public Policy Polling survey before the Florida primary has Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich 39 percent to 31 percent.
Rick Santorum is at 15 percent and Ron Paul, at 11 percent, according to the survey
released on the eve of the primary Tuesday.
"One thing Romney did a great job of was getting his voters out early," according to Public Policy Polling's analysis. "With the third of the electorate who have already cast their ballots, he leads 45-32. That means Gingrich would have to win election day voters by somewhere in the 6-8 point range to pull off the Florida upset, but we find that Romney still has a 36-30 advantage with those are waiting to vote" on Tuesday.
Romney will win Florida "because he's winning his core groups of support by wide margins, while holding Gingrich to single digit advantages with his key constituencies. Romney is winning moderates by 39 [53-14], seniors by 12 [46-32], and women by 12 [42-30]. Meanwhile Gingrich is only up 8 with tea partyers [39-31] and 6 with evangelicals [38-32], groups he won by huge margins in South Carolina," the polling organization said.
The hubbub over Romney's tax returns early last week may have enhanced his chances in the state. The truth is that being wealthy and successful is not a liability with Republican voters- it's a selling point. We find that 66 percent of primary voters have a favorable opinion of 'rich people' to only 8 percent with a negative opinion of them."
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