When it comes to predicting who will be the winner of the Republican nomination, polls will not be a reliable indicator, said the
National Journal's Charlie Cook.
In a column, Cook makes the case that polling results vary widely even when the question is the same.
"The field for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is as flat as any in modern memory — pretty remarkable for a party that usually has a fight but almost invariably ends up nominating whoever's turn it is," he wrote.
Cook lists three national polls that test the question of who voters would be willing to vote for. In each case, there are different front-runners at varying levels of support.
"What also becomes apparent from reading these surveys is that even the most scrupulously honest pollsters can get fairly different results based on exactly what question they ask and what group they are polling."
He said that results can vary depending on whether the poll surveys only Republicans or also includes Republican-leaning independents. It is difficult, he said, for a national poll to take into account the differences among states that may or may not allow independents to vote in a primary.
"The flatness of this field combined with a system awash in money — with just a single billionaire able to keep a candidate in the race — should make for an exceedingly volatile Republican campaign, one that is absolutely impossible to predict."
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