According to the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, housing prices in September were the highest they’ve been in over 10 years. In fact, they’re higher than they were when the bottom dropped out during the Great Recession, and property values plummeted. Does this mean the market has fully recovered from the disaster? Or is it a harbinger of another crash like we saw in 2008 just around the corner?

The Market Begins to Thrive 

A report on 20 major U.S. cities showed housing prices rose overall by 5.1% compared to the same time period last year. Seattle showed the biggest jump, going up by 11%, while other cities, such as Denver and Portland, improved significantly as well.

It helps that, despite a slight uptick over the last year, mortgage rates are still extremely low. Meanwhile, the job market is continuing to improve, and wages are going up. This means more people are able to afford to buy a house—particularly first-time buyers finally making the decision to enter the market. However, with this higher demand prices are going up as well.

This trend is great for homeowners, as the values of their houses are rising. Going forward, it won’t be as good for people looking to buy homes and finding them increasingly difficult to afford. First-time home buyers are on the rise for the moment, but that may not last if prices continue to go up.

Is Another Crash on the Horizon?

On the surface, this surge in housing prices seems like a sign of economic recovery. However, there are those who believe this sudden upswing is merely a calm before the storm, and another crisis like the one in 2008 is looming.

Of course, if another crash does occur, it won’t be exactly like the previous one—or at least the causes won’t be the same. Before the last crisis, speculative purchases created a housing bubble. More houses were being built than were needed, and these were funded largely on credit. This drove up property values artificially until the bubble finally burst.

Today, however, the opposite problem seems to be creating the same result. Instead of too many houses, there are too few. Homeowners are more reluctant to put their houses up for sale, at least partly due to trepidation over the events of ten years ago. Likewise, contractors have been building fewer homes the last few years, as the cost of construction has been higher than what they could expect to make selling the finished product. The result—supply is failing to meet demand, which causes prices to rise once again.

A Delicate Balance

A number of financial experts have postulated that, in light of the current economic climate, another housing crash is around the corner. If you’re looking to enter the housing market right now, as either a buyer or a seller, be sure to exercise caution.  

The fact is the housing market will crash again. Markets will fall; in fact this week experts at BullionVault reported gold investing is at a five-year high, largely due to worried investors hedging their stocks. Their analysis: “[P]rivate investors are looking beyond the 'Trump dump' in gold prices to buy what many see as financial insurance at what looks [to be] a good discount given the risks ahead.”

According to head researcher Adrian Ash, the number of investors starting or growing their gold stash is at “its highest level since December 2011, when the global financial crisis was peaking.” Experienced investors, seeing the handwriting on the wall, are loading up on a safe haven physical asset that will hold its value when Wall St. and the housing market plunge. In fact, given gold’s inverse relationship to markets and the dollar, history shows that as homes and paper assets are falling, gold will rise.

Caught in a Stranglehold

All this is moderately nerve-wracking for readers under forty, but for the mass of Americans fifty and above, this cuts to the heart of your retirement security. According to the Washington Post, $2 trillion in retirement savings vanished in just fifteen months during the Great Recession. If you’re like most Americans, your IRA or 401(k) was gutted. Even if you’ve managed to get back to pre-crash account balances, you’ve still missed out on all the gains you should have made.

What happens if the next crash comes tomorrow? You’re closer to sixty than you are to forty, and the fact is you won’t have time to re-coup your losses this go-round. What you have to do is start taking your money off the table, and out of the reach of volatile markets. Bonds no longer provide the cover they used to, with Bloomberg reporting they lost $1.7 trillion in value in November alone. 

The biggest lesson of 2008 is that we cannot assume our homes will gain in value. Then there’s inflation, and its relentless chipping-away of your dollar’s buying power. 

You don’t have to be what’s dismissively known as a “gold bug” to see an asset that retains its buying power over decades, and which prices inversely to markets and the dollar, is a smart refuge in today’s world economy. Being able to keep a percentage of your retirement funds in physical gold and silver, while still holding as much or as little paper as you chose is, quite literally, the best of both worlds.

At minimum, for Americans who see their home’s value as the cornerstone of their retirement strategy, this is a wake-up call to have a contingency plan that includes easier-to-liquidate physical assets, like a Gold IRA. We’re definitely not out of the woods quite yet.

Trevor Gerszt is America's Gold IRA Expert, CEO of Goldco Precious Metals, and holds a position on the Los Angeles board of the Better Business Bureau.