Many financial commentators say the five-year bull market in stocks is running on its last legs.
But what might put an end to the party?
"The clear and present threat to the bull market is the current geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, specifically in Iraq,"
Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, writes in his daily commentary.
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Sunni militants are fighting to gain control of the country's largest oil refinery from the government. The price of Brent crude oil has risen from this year’s low of $104 a barrel to above $113 early Friday, Yardeni says.
"A red flag goes up when rapidly rising oil prices depress industrial commodity prices, as may be happening now." The CRB commodity index has dropped 2.3 percent from its peak on May 12, he writes.
In addition, "if the energy sector starts to underperform [the overall stock market] as a result of higher oil prices, that would be another warning signal of trouble for the global economy and the broad stock market," Yardeni notes.
So far this year, the S&P 500 Energy index has returned 12.9 percent, compared with 7.1 percent for the overall S&P 500.
To be sure, rising oil prices are good for companies with energy exploration and production centered in the United States, experts say.
"If you can say you don't have any Middle East operations, you don't have to worry about Russia, and oh by the way, we're growing our production double digits, that's a pretty attractive story for investors," Brain Youngberg, an energy analyst at Edward Jones, tells
CNNMoney.
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