The U.S. is 100% certain to enter a recession in the next 12 months, according to the latest monthly Bloomberg Economics projections.
A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists puts the probability of a recession at 60%, up from 50% in September.
Last week, in an interview with CNN, U.S. President Joe Biden said he did not think there would be a recession, but that if it happened it would only be "very slight."
The Bloomberg economist survey mirrors a similar Wall Street Journal survey of economists that found 63% expect a continuing recession in 2023, along with job losses. A recession will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by late next year or in early 2024, the economists concurred.
"'Soft landing' will likely remain a mythical outcome that never actually comes to pass," the University of Michigan's Daniil Manaenkov told the Journal, referring to the Federal Reserve's raising rates in hopes of keeping the economy from contracting.
The past Journal survey had economists expecting mild growth early in 2023, but expectations are turning down and increasingly negative, along with the markets under President Biden.
Economists surveyed by the WSJ, on average, expect a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter of 2023 and a 0.1% contraction in the second quarter.
Also, job cuts are being projected around 34,000 a month in the second quarter and 38,000 in the third quarter. That comes after the last survey had projections of employers adding 65,000 jobs per month in each of those quarters.
Some of the economic weakness, around 59% of economists say, will be caused by the continued hiking of interest rates, which are designed to cool massive inflation in the economy.
"The coming drag from higher rates and stronger dollar is enormous and will knock off about 2.5 percentage points from next year's GDP," according to Jefferies LLC's chief economist Aneta Markowska. "In light of this, it's hard to imagine how the U.S. can avoid a recession."
Still, economists surveyed expect the recession to end fairly quickly (eight months) and the economy as well to grow 0.4% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024.
"The Federal Reserve is choosing between the lesser of two evils — take a recession with a rise in unemployment today or risk a more corrosive and entrenched inflation taking root," says KPMG's Diane Swonk. "The risks of a misstep are large, given the sins that low rates likely papered over."
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