Tesla Inc.’s most bullish Wall Street analyst predicts the electric-car maker’s dizzying rally will accelerate this year and that the stock will trade in the $640-to-$960 range in early 2021.
New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu anticipates the company will sell 2 million to 3 million cars per year after 2025 at industry-leading margins, justifying a market capitalization of $230 billion to $350 billion, or about $1,100 to $1,700 per share.
“The stock will remain volatile, as the spread between bull and bear cases remains wide,” said Ferragu, who boosted his price target to a Street high. “And God only knows what the next controversy will be.”
Tesla is set to report quarterly earnings next week.
Tesla Inc.’s market value has climbed above Volkswagen AG’s for the first time to more than $100 billion, a threshold that will trigger a huge payout for Elon Musk if he can sustain the feat for months.
The electric-car maker’s shares (TSLA) soared as much as 5.9% in early trading Wednesday, extending a 31% surge already this year. At the pre-market high of $579.51, Tesla’s market capitalization was roughly $104.5 billion, exceeding Volkswagen’s $100 billion.
A surprise third-quarter profit and strong deliveries for the fourth quarter helped fuel the rally, along with the opening of its China plant.
Ferragu, who raised his price target to a $800 from previous $530, expects the company to beat estimates for free cash flow when it releases fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 29.
He also predicts 2020 delivery guidance will exceed projections, and sees a potential drop in gross margins in the first half of the year as Shanghai-assembled Model 3s -- which have higher fixed costs per car -- increase in the overall mix.
Earlier on Tuesday, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi struck a cautious note, saying the Shanghai Gigafactory production could pressure margins in fourth and first quarter.
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