Tags: stocks | buy | market | volatility

Barron's: 4 Steady Stocks to Buy Before Volatility Surges

Barron's: 4 Steady Stocks to Buy Before Volatility Surges
(Terry Mason/Dreamstime)

By    |   Wednesday, 01 May 2019 09:14 AM EDT

Berkshire Hathaway, Royal Dutch Shell, Oracle, and Visa could be relatively solid stocks if volatility picks up in global markets, Barron’s recently reported.

The stocks highlight a list of the 15 least-volatile stocks within global sectors, according to a report this week by quantitative analysts at AllianceBernstein.

Broad U.S. market indexes that emphasize low volatility now look expensive, Barron’s quoted the report as saying. Individual low-volatility stocks globally are more attractively priced, according to the report, which recommends the stocks as a way to protect against a rise in market volatility.

Low-volatility stocks in the U.S. trade at about a 20% premium to high-volatility stocks, on average, the report noted.

Global economic growth and corporate profit forecasts would need “to maintain their current levels” to keep volatility at today’s levels, and “we don’t think that [is] likely,” Bernstein’s analysts wrote.

To be sure, market volatility is similar to an ocean's dangerous riptide current that all all swimming investors want to know how to navigate to remain alive.

Traders going all-in on the U.S. rally may be better off shorting volatility than buying stocks, as the strategy flashes bullish signs evoking the “golden age” of 2017, Bloomberg recently advised.

Macro Risk Advisors reckons selling price swings on the S&P 500 in today’s calm markets can now deliver stronger risk-adjusted returns than going long the index -- a reversal of this year’s trend.

After outsize losses for short-vol bets over the past 18 months, it’s not for the faint of heart. But technical factors in the underbelly of the derivatives market are giving the trade extra juice.

First, the futures curve for the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, this month has assumed a shape more favorable for those betting against stock gyrations. And second, an old friend: the persistent gulf between higher expected price swings versus what comes to pass.

Together, it’s enough to spur the fast money to up wagers against volatility, even as Wall Street strategists sound the alarm on illiquidity and late-cycle risks.

“Today, the market and economy look different” from 2016 and 2017, Vinay Viswanathan, MRA strategist, wrote in a recent note. “Metrics, though, are starting to resemble the ‘Golden Age’ of VIX selling.”

A dovish Federal Reserve, agreeable valuations and easing trade tensions have all damped market swings as the S&P 500 flirts with records -- a Goldilocks-like climate for volatility selling.

While the benchmark U.S. gauge has managed to produce better returns adjusted for risk so far in 2019, as conditions endure the calculus on paper is poised to flip, according to Viswanathan in New York.

Thanks in part to a slump in the VIX, the futures curve for the gauge of expected U.S. price swings has steepened, in particular at the front-end. “You can think of it like a clothesline -- you pull one end down and the rest goes down with it at a gradient,” Viswanathan said in a message.

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StreetTalk
Berkshire Hathaway, Royal Dutch Shell, Oracle, and Visa could be relatively solid stocks if volatility picks up in global markets, Barron’s recently reported.
stocks, buy, market, volatility
487
2019-14-01
Wednesday, 01 May 2019 09:14 AM
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