Last week ended with the Dow popping 267 on a lackluster jobs report, providing yet more evidence that the financial markets don’t want the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates any time soon. Mediocre news is good news.
In the first clip,
Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said that a report that the economy added 233,000 jobs and unemployment fell to 5.4% means the Fed is likely to act some time before the end of the year, but probably not as soon as June.
This writer would observe that this is another data point suggesting that action might not come this year at all, and it should be read with Peter Schiff’s prediction last week that the Fed would sooner launch QE-4 than end QE. Luschini added that the Fed might begin to see improvement in wages, another indicator Yellen is looking at in deciding to raise rates.
He was then asked why the bond market doesn’t seem to agree, and he responded that last week’s upward move in bond yields makes bonds attractive. However, he missed the point that this means rates could move up on their own and the Fed can lose control of the timing of any rate increase.
Asked for stock recommendations, Luschini followed suit among pundits and continued to recommend money center banks – Citi (C) and JPMorgan (JPM) in anticipation of a steeper yield curve as rates increase and banks might recover some of their loss reserves.
He also recommended McDonalds (MCD) in anticipation of an increase in consumer spending. Luschini quipped that the 3% dividend “could allow you to pay for your hamburger.”
Other commentators have questioned the sustainability of consumer spending and warned that it could be a weak point later in the year, leading the Fed to postpone further its declared plan to increase rates.
The second clip features Willy Van Riet, CFO of
Wienerberger in Vienna, stating that a rate change is coming and companies need to prepare, whether it occurs in the second half of this year or later, by reducing corporate debt. A contrarian would consider the likelihood that some companies would increase debt in order to take advantage of low rates while they can.
With central banks worldwide coordinating accommodative monetary policy, it is worth looking at the Bank of England, and
Christian Schulz, of Berenberg Bank, predicts that the BOE will move to raise rates in 2016 because unemployment rates are “headed for pre-crisis levels” in both the U.S. and UK.
He also praised the Conservative government for focusing on spending cuts rather than tax increases but predicted the government will go slow in further cutting.
Here again, it is noteworthy that the year he is talking about is 2016. This writer sees the picture as still consistent with the authorities waiting too long to act, with the markets acting sooner, and not necessarily in the orderly manner the Fed envisions.
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