The stock and bond markets have offered conflicting indications for the economy this year, giving investors a case of "schizophrenia," says star economist Nouriel Roubini of New York University.
The S&P 500 has generated a total return of 4.42 percent so far in 2014, a sign of economic strength. But the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to 2.62 percent early Friday from 3.04 percent Dec. 31, indicating economic weakness.
At an investment conference this week, Roubini said he sides with the bond market,
MarketWatch reported. "I am still of the view that most economic growth might surprise to the downside," he said.
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He noted that if the stock market rises an additional 30 percent the rest of the year, as it did in 2013, stocks would be in "frothy" territory.
GDP shrank 1 percent in the first quarter, but many economists think it will expand 3 percent or more for the rest of the year.
While Roubini apparently doesn't share that view, he did say that some economic/financial risks are easing. A breakup of the eurozone has become less likely, U.S. fiscal policy is less worrisome and Japan has made progress in sparking economic growth, he said.
Meanwhile, a
National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey of 47 of its members produced an optimistic U.S. growth prediction in June.
"The consensus forecast is that real GDP will advance at a strong 3.5 percent annualized clip in the second quarter of 2014, bolstered by activity that was postponed due to adverse weather conditions earlier in the year," NABE president Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement.
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