Professional investors think they’ll need between $3 million and $5 million to retire, according to the latest Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey.
Less than half think there is a 100% chance they will ever achieve that goal.
Average Americans, by comparison, think they will need at least $1.25 million in order to retire comfortably, up 20% from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual.
The good news for retirement savers is that after the average Vanguard 401(k) account declined 20% in 2022, professional and retail investors think stocks and bonds will revert to their traditional diametric performance, so that fixed-income investing can, once again, serve as a buffer.
However, investors are concerned about corporate earnings and the possibility of a recession in the U.S. in 2023.
Fifty-eight percent also think that the “Faang” stocks — Apple Inc., Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet Inc. and Meta Platforms, Inc. — which comprise 20% of the market valuation of the S&P 500, will be supplanted by newcomers in the next three years.
“When five names in the S&P 500 make up more than 20% of the index, those names tend to lag the index over the next three to five years,” explains Bob Shea, chief investment strategist at Dynasty Financial Partners.
Shea also believes Asian and other international assets will outperform those in the U.S. in 2023.
Even with these changing dynamics, 56% of those surveyed said they were not adjusting their retirement portfolios.
As far as individual investors are concerned, they need to shore up their savings, especially in light of inflation, experts say. To begin with, only two-thirds of U.S. private sector workers had access to a workplace retirement savings plan in 2021.
The average 401(k) balance overseen by Vanguard at the end of 2022 was $112,572 and the median balance was $27,376.
“It’s no wonder many would-be retirees are doubting the viability of their nest eggs,” says Christine Benz, Morningstar director of personal finance and retirement planning. “While inflation appears to be cooling off, it increases the amount of funds that a person needs to have in retirement.”
Even among professional traders, 8% are considering never throwing in the towel and retiring.
Bloomberg’s Markets Live team conducted the MLIV Pulse survey on its terminals and online last week.
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